Events / Gary Boswell / 02 November 2011 /

It may lack the glamour of last week's event in Istanbul but Bali offers another eight-strong field and this time, a superb betting oppportunity. Gary Boswell weighs up the draw and the head-to-heads to find a worthy wager.

We move from Petra Kvitova's assertion as the new World number two with victory in the TEB BNP Paribas WTA championships in Istanbul last week to the final Women's tennis tournament of the 2011 calendar. This week we're in Bali, Indonesia - the Commonwealth Bank Tournament of champions (International Series).

Just eight players again in a simple knockout tournament over four days starting on Thursday November 3 at GMT 17.30, featuring none of the top eight women who contested last week's event. Instead, a lesser eight who nevertheless won tournaments somewhere round the globe on this year's WTA tour. A kind of consolation tournament of reserves or second stringers but a fascinating little competition and a perfect kind of tournament vignette for betting purpose.

The draw is already made and matches Nadia Petrova versus China's rising star Peng Shuai and ex-world number one Ana Ivanovic, versus the rapidly-improving Italian Roberta Vinci in the top half. Number one seed Marion Bartoli plays Anabel Medina Garrigues, whilst German Sabine Lisicki takes on Daniela Hantuchova in the bottom half.

Using the head-to-head stats, that are extremely consistent and reliable in predicting outcomes in women's tennis, it is possible with such a small tournament entry to quickly plot expected results and predict a likely outright winner.

That method points to second favourite Sabine Lisicki, currently trading at around [6.0] and a serious value punt with only three games in total to win. The twenty two year old, who missed much of last season, has developed now into the second most fearsome server on the circuit (behind only Serena Williams) and seems to have successfully overcome the choking tendency that dogged her early career.

Arguably her toughest challenge comes first round against the more experienced Hantucheva - currently ranked world number 23 - who has beaten her soundly in the past and against whom she has a head to head of 1-1. The recent match-up was in Birmingham this summer and resulted in a comprehensive straight sets win for the German - who has, with Kvitova, looked to me the most likely youngster to break into that Graf, Navratilova, Hingis mold of dominance in world tennis for quite a while now.

Get past Hantucheva and she likely faces number one seed and tournament favourite Marion Bartoli, who comes in fresh from her win over Viktoria Azarenka whilst standing in for injured Maria Sharapova, in last week's top eight event. With a 6-2 head to head over Medina Garrigues, Bartoli can be expected to make the semi-final but has a bad 1-3 deficit head-to-head score against Lisicki, including that Wimbledon QF this year in which Lisicki was simply fitter and stronger. Bartoli has a proven tendency toward head-to-head, losing consistency against her bogey players, which propels Lisicki into the final in my book.

Petrova versus Peng in the top half is a close call but the 25 year old Chinese woman has the edge at 3-2 in the head to head including the two recent encounters .Three setters both so expect some toing and froing in the in-play match market here. Likewise Ivanovic versus Vinci is a close call with the Serbian 4-2 up but the Italian the current form choice, having won both match ups this year in Pattaya City and Toronto. The experienced 28 year old is blossoming and might just cause an upset. She can also be fancied to take out Peng, but not Lisicki, who she will meet in the final if all goes as I predict!

The Boz's recommended bets

2pts SABINE LISICKI in the outright market at around [6.0]

A first round multiple taking Sabine Lisicki, Marion Bartoli, Peng Shuai and Roberta Vinci to win

with 4 x combination 0.5point trebles and a 0.5pt four timer.

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