Events / Sean Calvert / 18 May 2009 /

Sean Calvert talks us through a successful week in Madrid on the betting front and gives us a haeds-up on why favourite Davydenko is best left alone and Youzhny worth backing as the ATP Tour heads to Austria.

The Magic Box in Madrid certainly conjured up some amazing tennis last week and also made us a few quid in the process.

It was another successful event with my back to lay tips of Roger Federer ([14.0] who of course went on to win it, and Juan Martin Del Potro ([120.0] to [9.0]) showing a mammoth profit. Then of course there was that classic match between Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic to savour too and the tennis equivalent of finding a four-leaf clover - Nadal losing a match on clay.

All in all a very enjoyable week and while the main contenders for Roland Garros head off the tour to rest prior to the French Open, the calendar rolls on to Kitzbuhel - home of the Austrian Open this year.

This clay court event is normally held in Portschach, but this year moves to Kitzbuhel and despite it being so close to Roland Garros, defending champion Nikolay Davydenko is the top seed on display.

The world number 11, despite the fact that he quit in Madrid with yet another injury prior to his third round clash with Andy Roddick, has decided to honour his entry here where has a stellar 23-4 record.

The organisers must be extremely relieved that Davy has opted to play, as the fact that their website has the Russian's photo and bio all over it would have made them look pretty silly had he not turned up (which he still might not!).

Davy won the title here in 2005,06 and 08 and as you would expect is a very warm order indeed at around [2.7] to claim his fourth Austrian Open title, but what of the opposition?

Next best in the betting is another Russian, Mikhail Youzhny ([7.0]), who is making his debut here and comes fresh from his best tournament showing in a long time when he made the championship match in Munich, losing out to Tomas Berdych.

Youzhny is very much a streaky kind of player and when he's hitting well and confidence is high he can be a danger to most and is certainly in with a big chance in a field with as little quality as this one.

He has been drawn in the bottom half, away from Davydenko, and has most to fear from one of the home favourites Stefan Koubek, by whom Youzhny has been beaten by in three of their four clashes.

Another home favourite in that section of the draw is Jurgen Melzer ([14]), who is on paper Austria's best hope of success.

The Kitzbuhel website marketing guys have taken great delight in proclaiming this as Melzer's year, based on his career high of 27 in the world rankings, but they have overlooked his alarming tendency to implode - sometimes spectacularly - under pressure.

Melzer's 13-8 record in the Austrian Open speaks volumes and my Federer winnings won't be riding on him this week for sure.

Victor Hanescu is an interesting entry, who is also in the bottom half of the draw and despite losing his last four matches on clay is currently at a career high number 32 in the world rankings.

The Romanian is more of a hard court man really, but he does have ability on the red dirt and this is the kind of event that he should be contesting. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go close at around [20.0].

The top half of the draw is of course dominated by Davydenko and by rights he should stroll this in a similar manner to Federer winning Halle every year, but you can never be that confident with Davydenko.

His record of tournament withdrawals through 'injury' is appalling, having retired or pulled out of five events in the last 12 months, so that has to be factored into any prospective wager on the Russian at short odds.

Indeed, throughout the Russian's chequered career, he has either retired or withdrawn from matches a shocking 22 times in total! Compare that with Federer, whose total is one over a career of similar longevity.

His withdrawal from Madrid last week with a left leg injury seems all the more bizarre given the fact that he has seemingly recovered within five days to play here and I won't be risking any cash on him this week, although he should win this comfortably if he stays fit throughout the week.

Speaking of withdrawals, another player in that top half of the draw with a shocking record is Mario Ancic, whose injury list reads like part of a script from E.R.

Ancic has been off the tour for the last ten weeks with yet another viral illness, but he's done well in qualifying here and he might be worth a small risk at around [20.0] on the assumption that he's back to full fitness.

Spanish red dirt specialist Oscar Hernandez has been in decent form lately and if he can get past the tricky hurdle of Fabrice Santoro ([42.0]), he could cause some damage at around [44.0].

So, with the chances of a Davydenko withdrawal somewhat on the high side, it might pay to take a punt on the in-form Youzhny in Austria with perhaps a small saver on either Ancic or Hanescu.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: