Events / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 26 November 2009 /

Jamie Pacheco tells us why he thinks the real Roger Federer has shown up this week in London and what he expects to happen as the great man faces US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro this evening.

If the ATP, the sponsors or the fans who paid top dollar to be at the O2 this week were concerned that Roger Federer wasn't too bothered about this event, they needn't have worried. It's not the best-kept secret in tennis that Federer doesn't always treat events outside the Grand Slams with the same commitment and enthusiasm as he does the four "big ones" as his demise at the hands of Julien Benneteau in the Paris Masters demonstrated.

But there was more at stake this week than may have first appeared. For starters there was an outside chance that he wouldn't have finished the year as world number one if Rafael Nadal went deep in this tournament and he didn't . Secondly, he must have quite fancied the idea of beating Andy Murray for a change. Lastly, there was the disappointment of having lost in his home town of Basel to Novak Djokovic two weeks ago. The first two of these objectives have already been met and he may yet face "The Serbinator" in this competition which will allow him to get even.

First though, he needs to make sure he qualifies for the semis. The "ugly route" to take would be for him to lose to Juan Martin Del Potro and either hope that Fernando Verdasco beats Andy Murray or lose to the Argentine narrowly and rely on his sets/games aggregate. The easy route is obviously to just beat the US Open Champion. There were signs against Andy Murray that Federer is back to his best: gliding round the court effortlessly, unleashing his beautiful forehand and volleying imperiously. Fitness and determination clearly weren't an issue either with his wins against Murray and Verdasco both going the distance.

There's every chance that the Fed Express will take the easy route into the semis and beat Del Potro this evening, in the process settling another old score after his defeat to him in the final of the US Open earlier this year. That said, I expect it to be close. This is a surface that suits Del Potro and he is desperate to win this match and book his place in the semis. Add to the equation the fact that conserving energy for battles to come is an essential part of the game plan needed to win this event; let's face it, you're not going to have an easy match in the semis whoever you face! If Federer breaks Del Potro once I can't see him going flat out trying to break him a second time. This match could well be decided on three tie-breaks but in any case there's value in siding with Del Potro with a 3.5 game start at around evens.

Selections:

Back Del Potro +3.5 games against Roger Federer @ [2.0]
Back a tie break @ [2.1]

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