ATP World Finals Betting: Davydenko can triumph in must-win match

Events / Ben Caudell / 25 November 2009 /

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Nikolay Davydenko is favoured to beat Rafael Nadal

"The head-to-head series between these two reads 4-3 in Nadal's favour, however Davydenko’s three wins have all come on hard courts with the most recent match a win for the Russian at this years Shanghai Masters. The Spaniard has lost seven of the last eight against top ten ranked players and Davydenko has won eight in a row against left handers."

The stats suggest the hard-working Russian can oust his higher-ranked opponent, says Ben Caudell

This is a tough match to call, Rafael Nadal has been struggling with his recent form and looked out of his depth against the hard hitting Robin Soderling in his first group match.

The Spaniard hasn't quite adapted to the O2's apparent low bouncing surface, the court grips at the ball making it sit up for the opposition rather than bouncing high and through the court allowing opponents time and space to deliver attacking penetrative shots. This was evident when Soderling picked off forehands and backhands regularly against the Spaniard, hitting the ball deeper and flatter and always putting his opponent on the back foot.

We will no doubt see a more aggressive Nadal against Nikolay Davydenko , with both players having to win to stay in the tournament this will surely be an epic battle of all proportions.

I still believe that Davydenko has the ability to go all the way in this tournament, his confidence in his shot making and tactical play has been of a high standard recently with his style suiting this surface. The Russian showed us just how good he really is at making his opponent work for each and every ball against Novak Djokovic. He was unlucky not to have defeated the young Serbian having led by a set and within touching distance of the finish line. Only a couple of points changed the course of that match.

My only doubt about the Russian is that during his first group stage match, Davydenko received treatment for breathing problems and says he does not know the cause of the problem.

The head-to-head series between these two reads 4-3 in Nadal's favour, however Davydenko's three wins have all come on hard courts with the most recent match a win for the Russian at this years Shanghai Masters. The Spaniard has lost seven of the last eight against top ten ranked players and Davydenko has won eight in a row against left handers.

If Davydenko doesn't require medical treatment for his respiratory problems and looks from the start like he means business than I will have to back him. He has the better form coming into this match and is more suited to this type of surface.

Selection: Back Nikolay Davydenko @ [1.8] to win match
Back under 2.04 games @ [2.12]

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