ATP Tour Finals Betting: Robin to rock Davydenko

Events / Ben Caudell / 27 November 2009 /

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Robin Soderling has been the surprise package of this year's event and could go all the way if his simple yet highly effective gameplan holds up.

"Soderling is the only player left in the tournament still to lose a match and will no doubt want to increase his chances of winning the huge cash incentive if he were to remain undefeated throughout the tournament. "

Robin Soderling may have already qualified for the semis but avoiding Roger Federer at that stage is a huge incentive for the big-hitting Swede to give his all against Nikolay Davydenko. And that could mean he wins, says Ben Caudell.

Robin Soderling (SWE) v Nikolay Davydenko (RUS)

Having watched both Soderling and Davydenko live at the O2 twice this week, I can safely say that both players have what it takes to go all the way in this tournament. Sensational Swede Robin Soderling on Wednesday backed up his opening win over world No.2 Rafael Nadal by defeating world No.3 and defending champion Novak Djokovic 7-6 6-1 for the first time in six attempts.

Yes, Djokovic looked more fatigued than when he played Davydenko in the previous match and is finding it hard to be motivated when body and mind are saying "we need rest". That said, I am just overwhelmed by the Swede's confidence and ability to dismantle all that is thrown at him with the level of simplicity he has so far shown.

Having already qualified automatically, Soderling will have less pressure and less of a quandary to worry about when he meets Davydenko for the tenth time of his career; he is currently leading the head-to-head series 6-3. Contrary to the majority of beliefs that Soderling will go easy in this match in the hope of being fitter for the semi finals, I have to disagree as I believe Soderling will prefer to avoid Federer in the semis, a player he has never won against in 12 previous meetings. He is currently 1-1 with Del Potro, a much more preferable alternative with both players having similar game styles.

I would really like to see Davydenko make the Semi Finals. The Russian was outstanding in his demolition of Rafael Nadal and was unlucky to lose against Djokovic in three sets. He has been consistently playing to a high standard, with his forehand down the line being his most effective shot.

I am slightly surprised to see that Davydenko is the favourite to win this match considering their head-to-heads and the fact that the Russian was bothered by an aching left leg in the second set against Rafa two day ago. Soderling is the only player left in the tournament still to lose a match and will no doubt want to increase his chances of winning the huge cash incentive if he were to remain undefeated throughout the tournament. Tough one to call, but I believe that the value is with the Swede.

Selection: Back Robin Soderling @ [2.15] to win match
Back Soderling +2.5 Games @[ 1.83]

Best Bet - Back Robin Soderling @ [2.15] to defeat Nikolay Davydenko (ATP World Tour Finals - Grp B)

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