Events / Sean Calvert / 09 February 2009 /

Fresh from predicting a good run for Jose Acasuso at the Movistar open last week, Sean Calvert turns his attentions to Rotterdam this week. Yes, Nadal and Murray are both there but it may pay to take a big-priced gamble on the likes of the enigmatic Gael Monfils...

Jose Acasuso's run to the final of the Movistar Open meant that we made a profit last week, despite Juan Monaco's disappointing effort and as ever, I'm on the hunt for value again this week.

The event with the highest profile and prize money is the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam, which is headlined by world number one Rafa Nadal and Andy Murray, but with the pair at around [3.0], you won't be getting rich off those two.

Clearly Nadal is in the form of his life and he probably feels he's unbeatable right now, which in fairness he more or less is, but there's a world of difference between this and the Australian Open and I like the look of some of bigger priced competitors here.

The Spaniard is often at his most vulnerable in these shorter matches, particularly on a speedy surface that has seen the likes of Michael Llodra and Max Mirnyi win here recently. In the more distant past Goran Ivanisevic and Richard Krajicek have also been successful in Rotterdam.

There are plenty of heavy hitters to choose from in this year's field if you go along with the horses for courses theory and among the most likely are Llodra ([126.0]), Ivo Karlovic ([75.0]) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ([13.0]).

Others that come in to that category are Dmitry Tursunov ([150.0]), Igor Andreev ([130.0]), Feliciano Lopez ([110.0]), Mario Ancic ([75.0]) and Ivan Ljubicic ([150.0]), but with the possible exception of Ancic, they have limited appeal.

Murray will be looking to bounce back from his Melbourne disappointment and he has been seeded in the bottom half of the draw, where he will face Ljubicic first up.

The big Croat has shown some signs of a mini-resurgence of late after an alarming slump that saw him drop out of the top 50 from a high of number three and he remains a danger when he puts it all together, as he did when he worried the life out of Tsonga in Melbourne.

Those moments are few and far between these days and Murray should come through, but this is no gimme and the Scot will be aware of Ljubicic's 2-1 head-to-head advantage, the most recent of their meetings coming in the final on Doha in 2007, when the Croat won in straight sets.

Other dangers as far as Murray is concerned are likely to come from a group consisting of Richard Gasquet ([38.0]), Robin Soderling ([28.0]) and Gilles Simon ([20.0]), who all have claims for one reason or another.

Gasquet was at his brilliant best for spells in his defeat to Fernando Gonzalez in Melbourne and any reproduction of that form in shorter matches such as these will defeat anyone.

And Gasquet's 2-1 head-to-head advantage over Murray (both on hard courts in three set matches) could also be a factor this week, should the Frenchman make it past compatriot Paul-Henri Mathieu and then Soderling.

Indeed, Soderling reached the final here last year after a great run that saw him beat Fernando Verdasco, Andreas Seppi and Simon in straight sets, as well as Marcos Baghdatis, so he will be a danger on that form again this time.

Simon is also at the top his game and with a little more belief would have pushed Nadal much closer in Melbourne and he could also run Murray close if they meet here.

In the top half, Nadal will probably meet Tomas Berdych ([70.0]) in the second round, which is the stage that the Spaniard lost out at last year (to Seppi) and that will be an early test of Nadal's credentials.

Should he overcome Berdych, Nadal also has Tsonga in his quarter and several dangerous 'floaters' lurk in that final section, including Karlovic, Llodra and Andreev, as well as Gael Monfils ([24.0]) and Nikolay Davydenko ([22.0]).

Tsonga would probably be the pick in Nadal's quarter, but he has just won in South Africa and it's unlikely his creaking body will stand up to a long flight, quick turnaround and back-to-back titles.

This should be the sort of event that Monfils ought to be winning by now and he appeals at around [24.0], but as ever with the Frenchman, his injury record is a concern; the latest of these being a wrist problem.

Davydenko is making his first appearance since limping out of Chennai with a foot injury and he has a tricky first round match with Andreev, who he has struggled with in the past.

Indeed, should he beat Andreev, the number three seed will probably face Lopez, who has beaten Davydenko in all four of their meetings and then he would most likely face Karlovic, who he also struggles against, so I'd want more than around [22.0] for a Davydenko success here.

In conclusion the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament is a wide-open affair and I'll side with outright bets on French pair Monfils and Simon on a back-to-lay basis, on the assumption that Nadal is here purely to honour his tournament commitment.

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