ATP Tour Finals Betting / Sean Calvert / 19 November 2011 /

It's great to be back at the O2 Arena and great to see two giants of the modern game combined in Sean Calvert's day one bets...

Day one of the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals features Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal, as the year-ending event kicks off at London's O2 Arena.

Sunday afternoon's opening match sees Federer taking on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, before the evening clash between Nadal and Mardy Fish.

Federer will be facing Tsonga for the second time in a week after landing the odds for this column in the final of the BNP Paribas Masters in Bercy last Sunday.

As these are the first games, punters are taking a bit of a flyer on the speed of the courts and hopefully there won't be any surprises in store as there were last week in Paris.

We backed the Federer win minus 3.5 games on the handicap in Bercy and the mark this time gives Tsonga a 4.5 game start, which could be worth an investment at around [1.9].

The pair have met on nine occasions now, with the Swiss maestro leading their series 6-3, and the winner of the first set has gone on to win the match in eight of those meetings.

Six of the nine matches have resulted in straight sets victories and a Federer 2-0 win trades at around the [1.67] mark.

This is Tsonga's first time in the Tour Finals at the O2 Arena (he previously played in Shanghai) and it's a big ask for him to go out and beat Federer in his first match, so I expect the Swiss to use his experience and put down a marker by winning this one.

That said, I don't think it will be as comfortable as in Bercy, as the Frenchman had an epic three hour match against John Isner the night before, so probably came out a little flat and he should push Federer closer on Sunday.

He'll enjoy being first match on in such a high profile event and I wouldn't be surprised to see Tsonga rise to the occasion and treat the London crowd to a competitive match.

The [1.25] about a Federer win is too short, so the bet I like is in the total games market, where I fancy this one to go over the 21.5 game mark at around [1.94].

Nadal and Fish's match is altogether harder to call, due to Fish's injury situation and Nadal's recent inactivity, but I would be inclined to think that Fish - on his first appearance in the year-end championships - wouldn't have chosen Nadal as his opening opponent.

America's number one has only managed to defeat Rafa once in their eight meetings - in Cincy this summer - and indoor hard is not Fish's best surface by any means.

Nadal is not exactly at his best indoors either, but there is recent form to go on from Tokyo a couple of months ago, when the Spaniard beat Fish 7-5, 6-1 in the semis there before losing to Andy Murray.

Fish will need to be incredibly aggressive to win this one and hope that Nadal's recent hiatus from the tour has left him rusty.

Hopefully, Mardy's injury that caused him to retire in Bercy and Basel will allow him to fulfil his matches, but it didn't look good for him just over a week ago, which I doubt is enough time for him to recover.

While Rafa's main focus is ultimately on the Davis Cup Final, he'll be desperate to do well here after an average year by his standards and if Fish was unable to take a set in Tokyo, I don't see him doing it here carrying an injury.

I can't see any bets in this one that leap out at me and with too many variables for my liking, I think the most sensible play is to back Nadal in a Betfair Multiple with Federer.

Recommended Bets
Back Over 21.5 games in Federer v Tsonga at [1.94]
Back Federer and Nadal in a Betfair Multiple

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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