AEGON Championships Betting / Sean Calvert / 10 June 2011 /

When tiredness and a slight lack of motivation kick in, one of the last players on the planet you want to be facing is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The world number one Rafael Nadal may well be suffering from both and is worth taking on, says Sean Calvert.

Day five at Queen's Club will feature, weather permitting, the quarter final matches of the 2011 Aegon Championships and the match of the day is scheduled for around teatime.

Rafa Nadal takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on a grass-court for the first time and if ever there was a day to take the Spaniard on, it could be today.

The world number one is at his 'danger price' of around [1.38] today and this is due to a number of factors.

The first one being fatigue. During yesterday's match against Radek Stepanek, in which the Czech gave Rafa quite a scare, he certainly looked leggy, which is hardly surprising given his recent schedule.

Rafa's cross-court forehand got him out of most of the trouble against Stepanek, whose weight of shot wasn't enough to have Nadal on the back foot often enough to force the win.

Tsonga will certainly provide a sterner test in terms of heavy hitting and I'm not sure that Rafa really cares enough about this event to bring his absolute best to the court today - or even if he'll be capable of doing so.

He lost in at the same stage of this tournament last year to Feliciano Lopez in straight sets after a similarly tough schedule and having won this event before, Rafa won't put his Wimbledon in danger to win it again.

As for Tsonga, well, he comes here by far the fresher of the two after Michael Llodra retired (incredibly, Llodra's 25th retirement or withdrawal of his career) yesterday.

In what little we've seen of Tsonga, he looks in great shape and he says he loves playing on these excellent Queen's Club grass-courts. Plus, his serve seems to be booming, so it's definitely worth a bet at [3.85] that he can spring a surprise today.

They've met six times, with Rafa leading 5-1, but never on grass and apart from the last one on the slow hard-courts of Miami, Tsonga's been close and you would have to give the Frenchman a shot on the green stuff at an attractive price.

Today's banker bet has to be Andy Murray to beat Marin Cilic at around [1.22].

Cilic has been his usual mix of abysmal and pretty good this week and he is there for the taking in every match at the moment.

Anyone who loses a set 6-0 to Thomaz Bellucci on grass has got problems and despite Murray occasionally struggling against the big Croat, his grass-court skills should be far too much for the one-dimensional Cilic.

If you want to follow Sean's advice and back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to knock out Rafael Nadal you're definitely better off doing it on Betfair. If you backed the Frenchman for £10 and he came good, you'd win £28.50 (after maximum commission of 5% was deducted) compared to just £25.50 with Bwin and £25.00 with Stan James.

For more information about how Betfair's prices compare to other bookmakers click here

Recommended bets:

Back Tsonga to beat Nadal at [3.85]
Back Tsonga and Murray in a multiple

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