X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 30 October 2010 / 1

Jack Houghton bemoans the events in the lead-up to a voided Betfair market and tells us why he's (literally) hedging his bets ahead of this weekend's edition...

For two years they've clashed over the X-Factor. In 2008, Mike Norman prevailed. In 2009, Jack Houghton made it honours even. Norman's claims of foul-play last year sparked a brawl at the betting.betfair Christmas party. To avoid a repeat performance, the editors have decided to formalise things this year. Each armed with a £1,000 and their We-Love-You-Simon badges, Mike Norman and Jack Houghton go head-to-head - tipping their way to a Christmas number one."

Link to "Mike Norman": https://betting.betfair.com/specials/xfactor/mike-normans-x-factor-2008-awards-081208.html

Link to "Jack Houghton": https://betting.betfair.com/specials/xfactor/x-141209.html

I was robbed last week. There was no way Wagner was in the public's bottom three but, thanks to those schmuck-producers at the X Factor who decided to buck the trend of previous weeks and only get rid of one act, Betfair had to void the market.

This presumably explains why there is no Bottom Two/Three option this week, and only an outright eviction market on offer. No one likes it when markets have to be voided - least of all the wielders of the big-red-suspend-button - so until there's some certainty over how many acts will get the boot each week, I guess we'll have to make-do.

The outright eviction markets are fraught with annoyance though. Judicial review is capricious - dominated by tactical whimsy - and repeatedly sees unpopular acts saved. It's not enough to predict the most disliked act; you also have to predict the unpredictable whims of the omnipotent four.

Having been burned in outright eviction markets in the past, I'm tempted to give all betting a swerve this weekend. I could simply sit back and watch Norman squander yet more of his funds on yet another ill-judged punt, while I continue to build an increasingly commanding lead in our tipping "competition". But I didn't get to where I am today by recommending sitting back. Oh no.

The eviction markets may be difficult, but it's nothing a bit of guile can't conquer. It's very likely that Katie, Treyc and Belle Amie are the three most unpopular acts left in the competition. They're the only remaining acts to have been involved in sing-offs and, although this may have had something to do with the curse of Mary, it's more likely down to the fact they're not very good.

So I'll be playing a three-way with the six girls (it will be a tag-team affair) and, in the 6th Elimination market, having £50 on Belle Amie at [2.98], £20 on Treyc at [7.8], and £20 on Katie at [10.0]. At least one of the acts should be in the bottom two and, provided Wagner doesn't join them, one of them should be voted out.

Elsewhere, Betfair has opened up some new markets. Although still a little illiquid, some of the head-to-heads look interesting and, as they fluff-up in the coming weeks, I'll likely get more involved. In the meantime, Paije looks value at [2.04] to out-survive Treyc, and I'm having £30 on at the price.

We've also got a Top 3 market to play with. Although I'm not a huge fan myself, Mary Byrne is very good at what she does and is undoubtedly popular. In my view, there's no way she can win the thing outright, but she neatly fits into the category of older women, who can belt out a tune, that have done well in the show in the past. Think back to Rowetta (4th), Brenda (4th), Niki (4th) and Ruth (5th), and you'll get what I mean. Mary's better than all those previous "belters" and, with only four other acts realistically capable of making the Top 3, she looks massive value at [4.10] to survive until the final show. I'm having £80 on.

Betting bank running total = £620.

This week's recommendations:

£50 BACK Belle Amie at [2.98] in 6th Elimination Market.
£20 BACK Treyc at [7.80] in 6th Elimination Market.
£20 BACK Katie at [10.0] in 6th Elimination Market.
£30 BACK Paije at [2.04] in Paije v Treyc Head-to-Head Market.
£80 BACK Mary Byrne at [4.10] in Top 3 Market.

Previous recommendations:

£70 BACK Matt Cardle at [5.1] in Outright Market - OPEN.
£70 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [11.0] in Outright Market - OPEN.
£20 BACK Belle Amie at [30.0] in Outright Market - OPEN.
£30 BACK Cheryl Cole at [7.0] in First Mentor Eliminated Market - OPEN.
£50 BACK Matt Cardle at [5.4] in Outright Market - OPEN.
£50 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [6.6] in Outright Market - OPEN.
£50 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [2.10] in Girls' Market - OPEN.

£20 BACK FYD at [34.0] in Outright Market - LOST.

£10 BACK Katie Waissel at [6.6] in Third Elimination Market - LOST.
£10 BACK Cher Lloyd at [60.0] in Third Elimination Market - LOST.

£70 LAY Wagner at [1.70] in Bottom Three Market - Week 3 - VOID.

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1. Mike | 30 October 2010

   I haven't made any punts this week you plonker :-)

   I've done the honourable thing and let my Paije Richardson bet from last week carry over to this week.

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