X Factor 2010 Betting: Twist or no twist, these three will go far

X-Factor / Mike Norman / 04 October 2010 / 18

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One Direction are strong contenders as a group in this year’s X Factor

"Made up of five boys who just missed out on the final eight in their own category, One Direction are an ideal boy band who will appeal to almost everyone."

The live shows are upon us, and Mike Norman believes three acts are worth backing now regardless of whether Saturday's curtain raiser contains an unprecedented twist.

For two years they've clashed over the X-Factor. In 2008, Mike Norman prevailed. In 2009, Jack Houghton made it honours even. Norman's claims of foul-play last year sparked a brawl at the betting.betfair Christmas party. To avoid a repeat performance, the editors have decided to formalise things this year. Each armed with a £1,000 and their We-Love-You-Simon badges, Mike and Jack go head-to-head - tipping their way to a Christmas number one."

What's going on in X Factor land? First they change the Over 25's category to Over 28's, an absolutely bizarre decision considering the lack of talent that is now in that category and the 26 and 27 year-olds who could have made it through to the live shows - Treyc Cohen to name but one.

But if that decision was a disbelieving one, then Cheryl Cole's decision to reject some very good singers in favour of a couple of girls who couldn't even remember their words was profoundly unfair. Katie Waisell - that's the one who wears a pelmet for eyelashes - forgot her words in her very first audition, and then did exactly the same in front of Cole at some posh Ascot hotel. The same happened to 16-year-old Cher Lloyd, but she was put through because our Geordie mentor liked her the first time she saw her!

Waisell and Lloyd are available to back at [40.0] and [8.6] respectively in the Winner market and may prove to be excellent singers, but I can't help but feel sorry for the girls who didn't make it given that Cole had effectively made her mind up on two of her three finalists before all eight had even performed.

The one decision that Cole did get correct was the one that saw 23-year-old Rebecca Ferguson from Liverpool make it through to Saturday's live curtain raiser. Ferguson once gave up on her singing dreams after becoming pregnant, and her confidence has been seriously dented. But now armed with a second chance and an endearing personality that makes her come across so genuine, Ferguson has the potential to go all the way. She is very much in the mould of previous winner Leona Lewis - shy, vulnerable, and unaware of her talent - so at [5.2] to back, she is my early selection to be this year's winner.

Wagers will be kept to a minimum in the Winner market for the time being however as - if internet rumours are to believed - the X Factor has a bit of a surprise coming this weekend. Whether it's some rejected contestants being reinstated, the judges getting their categories switched, or Louis Walsh and Simon Cowell doing mud wrestling we'll have to wait and see, but my view is if it's not broke, then don't fix it.

In the Boys category Aiden Grimshaw looks the class act despite Matt Cardle being the overall favourite to win the show. Grimshaw - not exactly a pop name I know - has the looks and the voice to go very far, and at [12.0] to back he is also worth a wager.

Of course, in this head-to-head tipping battle with my pesky colleague Jack Houghton I'm already at a huge disadvantage. That's because as I write there's no First Elimination market for me to get involved in, there's no individual category markets, and perhaps most importantly, we don't know exactly what Saturday's twist is going to be. The one twist that I don't want to see happen is for the judges to be switched categories, and if that's the case then I believe Simon Cowell is worth a bet at [3.5] in the Winning Mentor market.

Cowell is mentoring the Groups this year and for the first time that category looks really strong - in fact it's the early [2.54] favourite in the Winning Category market. Won't it just be fitting - for Cowell's upwardly career at least - for the show's mogul to be the mentor who guides the Groups to their first ever X Factor success?

Within that category One Direction look super talented. Made up of five boys who just missed out on the final eight in their own category, One Direction are an ideal boy band who will appeal to almost everyone. They're young, fashionable, ultra-cool, and above all else, very good singers - there's absolutely no weak link here. One Direction are available to back at [5.8] and make up my trio of early selections in the Winner market.

Betting bank running total = £1,000
This week's recommendations:
£100 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [5.2] in Winner market
£50 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [12.0] in Winner market
£75 BACK One Direction at [5.8] in Winner market
£75 BACK Simon Cowell at [3.5] in Winning Mentor market

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ajayassin | 04 October 2010

it is unbelievable that gamu hasnt made it to the final 12. this competetion dosnt seem to be talent and vocal ability anymore but based on good looking n favourites by panel of judges n i believe this will axed fans confidence as the judges axed potential winners of the competition which could lead to a downgrade to the show.
Anonymous | 04 October 2010

I was shocked that Cheryl picked Katie and Cher in place of Gamu. I am still shocked and hope the twist is to bring in Gamu. This is a talent show for God sake.
Anonymous | 04 October 2010

I feel like giving up on watching the show after Cheryl cole's decision. I had always respected her but that changed now these two girls should never have been considered they showed little respect for the opportunity offered them. Made me wonder if she still suffering from malaria!!! hope she beaten by Louis
Anonymous | 04 October 2010

I will give up watching the show, after Paije Richardson didnt get put through by Danni, he has such a great soulfull voice, how could she do it,, we dont all want to listen to the next Leona Lewis he was different,,,
maybe she might see the the error of her ways and put him through as a wild card,,,
Anonymous | 04 October 2010

I can't believe Cheryl picked Katie over Gamu. When I first saw Gamu perform, I thought she would win the show!
I do hope Gamu does come back next week into the Show! It will be a mistake if she does not get the opportunity to go further!
Shelly Edwards | 04 October 2010

I was absolutely shocked at the fact cheryl cole chose two people that could not sing!!!! Cher couldnt even finish her song and katie couldnt remember the words and started crying!!! I cant believe she let the Girlie from Birmingham go!!! I would of put my money on that girlie winning!!! I hope cheryl doesnt win the Xfactor! She has only one good singer out of the three and thats rachel!
Damian | 04 October 2010

Im incredibly livid in the lack of respect Her Highness Cheryl Cole as shown in not only the better contestants, but in us the voting public, this show is not quality driven anymore but is quirky orientated, i mean come on!, how can anyone who pulls them rancid faces (cher) yet alone forget her words, be taken seriously, IM RAPIDLY GOIN OFF THIS FARCE OF A SHOW!
paula | 04 October 2010

cheryl definetly shouldnt of chose katie, shes messed up twice now, which shows she isnt takin this seriously! i think simon made the best decisions!
Anonymous | 04 October 2010

bring back Gamu!!!
anonymous | 04 October 2010

I have heard that the twist is that the public get to vote a singer from each catorgery that did not get through to the live stages to come back into the compitition. I think Cheryl had a very hard decision with the strongest carorgery and i hope that if what i think is the twist is right then gamu will come back into the show but i Love Cher!
Anonymous | 04 October 2010

Just can't believe that Cheryl has picked Katie in preference to Gamu. My confidence in her ability to spot talent and class has gone. Chuffed with Danii's off the wall selection, she has really stuck her neck out and picked good quality different talent. Over 28's are poor. Hope that Gamu gets reinstated and Katie gets voted out first week.
hduhudhua | 04 October 2010

im horrified at cheryl cole now, she has simply put my mind off xfactor now. at first i thought that yes this year is going to be so good but now that the best contendors of x factor have gone because of cheryl im gutted and dissapointed and i certainly wont be watching- just like all my other freinds i know!!!!!! it is simple that cheryl has a soft spot for cher- its obvious that cheryl had already made her mind up before the contestants had even sang!!!! i cant believe she didnt pick gamu-she picked katyy waisel- is this right?? i think nicole sherzinger shud be bac on xfactor replacing cheryl this time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
neil tull | 04 October 2010

The show is in danger of losing its credibility, what is the point of having a talent show when the talent isn't picked. strange that two of simon's picks are bands he manufactured. Cheryl picked two girls who struggled to remember their words let alone sing.
Anonymous | 04 October 2010

Yeah, it's a talentless contets, CHakah Kahn or Aretha Frankiln would had never made it on the "poor-Factor".
jamie szuca | 04 October 2010

what a disguisting decision, cheryl cole? who is she anyway? a nobody without ashley putting her where she is today. it is sickening that someone as UN TALENTED as her can make dicisions like she did. Gamu would take Cher and Katie for all they are worth (which is probably not alot anyway) in a sing off anyway, i hope gamu gets all she deserves with a wildcard entry xxx
Christo | 05 October 2010

Do not bet on 1 direction, they are not fashionable, ultra-cool and not very good singers. At the moment most likely to win is Matt Cardle, must agree on that. Good bet is D.Minogue as Winning Mentor (2.75-3.0) - as she got 3 potential winners, Cheryl 2 (quite questionable at the moment Cher & maybe Rebecca), Luis 1 (Johh) and Simon... none. Any group not gonna win x-factor, no matter who their mentor is.
anon | 05 October 2010

dont diss cher shes awesome its not her fault shes gota saw throat and she knew the words unlike katie. i love cher and hopes she wins.
lainey | 05 October 2010

anno some of you on this dont think cher should have got frew but to be honest the girl is an awesome wee singer she done that turn my swag on 100 times better than the original keri hilson verion i think she deserved her chance i really think katie should have been told to go home as i think she is crap and actually annoys me !!! really gutted that wee tom richards got sent home i thought he was great and if there is a wild card in this weeks xfactor i really hope they bring tom back out of the boys...