Obama McCain Odds: Poll, baby, poll
US Politics
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BePolitics.com /
31 October 2008 /
With so much at stake in this years' U.S. Presidential Election, the Obama/McCain contest really is a big deal and should have any political hack on the edge of their respective seats. Sally Beckenham from BePolitics takes a look at why there is so much excitement this time around...
Since BePolitics has so far maintained a conspicuous and lonely silence on that other thing that's happening at the moment that has the world on tenterhooks, I feel it necessary to weigh in with some comments on the subject of the 4th November. It's the US elections, stupid.
If it doesn't have Brits - as well as Americans - on the edge of their respective seats, it should and it just takes a look at the commentary, the debates and the speeches to see why. There has been something truly exceptional occurring over these past months of electoral politicking in the US that should have the world gripped.
There are ranks of non-Americans in Europe who like me are compelled to feel like this is actually an election of their own president or Prime Minister, who feel some kind of personal investment in this election and the outcome in spite of the fact that the major issues being addressed by the candidates are - obviously - domestically American concerns; the economy, healthcare, re-discovering the 'American dream' that has turned nightmarish at the end of eight mismanaged and wasted years.
We saw thousands in Berlin holding a rally for the election of a President of another country, and not even a neighbouring European country but one whose historical security blanket has been North Atlantic isolationism and that over the course of the Bush administration has doggedly pursued its own cause regardless of the stance of the international community.
Americans themselves are massively energised, with already record numbers of early voters, an intense obsession with the countdown until Tuesday and mass parties in streets and fields planned with the assumption of Obama's victory. The US media is going into overdrive churning out poll after poll, commentators and analysts and politicians and campaign managers on every channel analysing to the finest detail the candidates and their VPs, the ads, the speeches, the debates and the rallies.
The reason for this unprecedented mobilization around the election here and in America is threefold. Firstly, no more Bush. He can no longer run the country, so who takes over and gives it CPR is crucial - enough said. Secondly, this has been an electoral season of precedents; the first Black contender for the White House against the first female contender; the biggest ever spend by a Presidential candidate; the first time ever that pre-election polls have shown previously 'safe' red states going blue, and seemingly also the first time that for once being a White, middle-class, 50+ Washington stalwart can actually be a disadvantage. Thirdly, and most importantly from our perspective, is that like it or not the results of this election will impact upon the rest of the world. With Iraq, Pakistan, Al-Qaeda, terrorism, Israel and Palestine, energy and of course economic policies, the Obama or McCain presidency will shape not just the next four years for America but for Europe too.
As a final point and at the risk of abandoning neutrality, I have to say that a fourth reason for this genuinely exciting time in American politics is the electrifying affect that Obama has had on the public and the media. It is only once a generation, not years or decades, that a speaker with this oratory power, charisma and eloquence comes along. He has rightly been compared to Martin Luther King and JFK for his moving speeches, but he brings yet more to the table than that; he is modernising his party and the ways of Washington, heralding cross-party unity and possesses a brilliant intelligence that will be enormously refreshing if he wins the race.
This to me is international affairs at its most fascinating and important, and I think we should all be enjoying the countdown, both for the uniquely American electoral pomp and beyond that for the realisation of what this election really means.
The betting suggests the race is as good as over, with Barack Obama at [1.14] on Betfair and John McCain [8.2]. It is surely going to be closer than that, but one thing's for sure: whatever the outcome it's going to be an interesting night come Tuesday.
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