US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 11 September 2008 /

While the Democrats having been preparing for government the Republican's have proved themselves old hands at electioneering, says Chicken Dinner.

The recent Republican record at managing the US economy, conducting an overseas military adventure and preventing floodwaters from obliterating one of the world's most famous cities may be worse than shocking, but the events of the last week have shown they are still outstanding at one thing: contesting a general election. These events have also confirmed another constant in American politics - that the Democrats are not.

Now that the balloons have settled following the two parties' conventions, John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate looks like a masterstroke, while Obama's mega-speech to a Denver football stadium threatens to be remembered as the moment when his efforts reached the apex of the campaign roller coaster. (Fans of roller coaster metaphors tend to forget that the trend in 100 per cent of roller coaster cases, is ultimately down.)

The Democrats seem to be making the same old mistake of preparing for government, rather than preparing for the election. And the Republicans are doing what they know works - taking the low ground, where the masses are. They haven't even had to fight dirty to get it.

In choosing the Alaskan governor and "hockey mom" Sarah Palin to share McCain's ticket, the Republicans have provided the single most important ingredient that was missing from this election so far - a candidate that huge numbers of Americans can identify with. Many people are undoubtedly impressed with Obama, but his urban intellectual brand is one that makes a lot of them suspicious. Huge numbers also sympathise with McCain and his five years as a prisoner of war, but he is too old for most people to feel that he is one of them.

Sarah Palin works because it's like turning up to a party and finding, to your immense relief, that there's someone there you can talk to. No one seems bothered by her messy past, the fact that more Americans have a closer personal understanding of Mexico than her home state, or that her policies are a mystery to them - they like her glasses. Besides, just a few weeks ago one of the biggest constituencies amongst the "undecideds" - the group of voters who are going to determine to outcome of this election - was women. So the Republicans picked a woman candidate for VP. Where do they get these ideas from?

The Democrats, more fool them, went in the opposite direction, picking Joe Biden as their VP candidate, in the mistaken belief that his experience in foreign affairs would reassure voters nervous of Obama's lack of it. Instead, his presence has diluted Obama's youthful lustre and his message of "change". Plus, his ability to turn the heads of the undecideds is non-existent. Planning for government suddenly looks like planning for failure.
To add to the Democrats' VP muddle, Biden said Hillary Clinton might have been a better candidate for the job than him. The comment was a remark on her formidable political talent rather than doubts as to his own suitability, but it instantly gave the Republican press machine another custard pie to throw. Perhaps Hillary would have been better, and perhaps Obama couldn't imagine working with her. But instead of worrying about a bossy deputy, his mind should have been focussed on a different concern - how many votes could she have delivered?

To round off a horrendous week, Obama has been made to look insulting and ungallant by calling Sarah Palin a "pig in lipstick." It doesn't matter what he meant or didn't mean - it looks like he called a woman a pig. Nowhere does this tactic appear in the Big Book of How To Attract Women Voters. A major Democratic fundraiser summed it up thus: "I'm so depressed. It's happening again. It's a nightmare."

On the Realclearpolitics.com average of polls, McCain leads by 2.2 points. On the Betfair Next President market, however, Obama is still favourite at [1.77], with McCain at [2.34]. Unless Obama can find some low ground of his own, that may be the best McCain price available for quite some time.

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