US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 07 August 2008 / 1

Speculation continues in the US media as to why Barack Obama cannot pull away from his stoic opponent, John McCain. ChickenDinner wonder whether he really is value at 1.57 to be next president.

For several weeks now, this column has noted the frequency with which political commentators wonder why Obama hasn't buried John McCain already. With all the public adulation and lovestruck press Obama's been receiving, how come ancient John McCain is still trotting just behind him? As of August 6, the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls has the gap at 3.5%. Betfair punters have narrowed the gap between the two since last week, with Obama still ahead at [1.57], McCain at [3.0]. The more they wonder, the more evidence they build against the favourite.

Latest to wade into the debate is David Brooks of the New York Times in a piece headlined "Where's the Landslide?" His interpretation of the phenomenon is that Obama is a "sojourner", a travelling man who has never stuck around long enough to make the connections that give the impression that he really belongs. His rise through the political ranks has been meteoric, but it may have left him feeling just a little bit short on political authenticity.

Brooks describes a number of ways in which Obama is "hard to place," and how he was "in" various institutions but not "of" them, including the senate. "He has not had the time nor the inclination to throw himself into Senate mores, or really get to know more than a handful of his colleagues. His Democratic supporters there speak of him fondly, but vaguely," he writes.

There is no such difficulty in "placing" John McCain. Voters can't have it both ways, of course - they can't clamour for something new and then complain that the candidate is insufficiently familiar, but it's all powerful ammo for scrapper McCain.

Further oxygen for the pensioner can be found in a piece by Steven Stark in the Boston Phoenix, called It Ain't Over Yet, in which he lists a number of historical precedents which make it difficult for Obama to win:

"No Democrat who hails from north of the Mason-Dixon line has been elected since 1960

"No candidate in the modern primary era has ever been elected in November after failing to win more than one of the nation's seven largest states in either its pre-convention primary or, if the state didn't hold a primary, its caucuses.

"No candidate in modern times has ever been elected president with a voting record that could be identified as his party's most liberal or conservative, yet in 2007 Obama was designated as the former (by the National Journal).

"No candidate, arguably, since Abraham Lincoln has been elected president with as little political experience as Obama.

"As any lawyer knows," writes Stark, "try to defy too many precedents and the odds begin to run against you."

Lastly, McCain should also benefit more than his opponent from the dreadful stinging sensation experienced by Americans each time they go near a petrol pump. Now that gas prices have tripled, environmental opposition to digging up Alaska and the sea bed has been trampled in a desperate attempt to find some more. The Republicans have never been over-troubled by their conscience on issues such as these, whereas the Democrats have tried to be more principled but usually end up looking indecisive and squabbly. Not surprisingly, as an increasing percentage of the population is struggling to afford even to get to work, public opinion has swung heavily enough toward the Republican position to force Obama into a u-turn on offshore drilling.

With the debate over energy jostling for position as the number one issue of the election, Obama needs to get both his policy and his party shipshape and Bristol fashion on the subject, or the Republicans' election vandals will cause merry hell for him on this front. Obama's lead still looks good, but the harder people stare at it, the more problems they find.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

1. Paul Cribb | 30 August 2008

   Sir,

   Will you give me odds as to whether Barack Obama will be inaugerated in the White House in January?

   Paul Cribb

:

:

:

?

: