US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 09 October 2008 /

With some commentators claiming that a McCain victory would mark the biggest upset in American political history, Chicken Dinner checks the pulse of the Republican campaign and reminds us that their opponents remain unsuprassed at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

"We know historically that when people are concerned about their pocket books they turn to the Democratic party," says former Bill Clinton aide Elaine Kamarck in this morning's Guardian. If you're not sure whether you even have a pocket book to be concerned about, well, it's something that a person, usually a lady, might carry her cash around in. Got one? Good. Want to get some more cash in that pocket book you didn't even realize you had? Then the only bet in this presidential race right now is Obama to win [Obama is [1.24]on Betfair to win, McCain is [5.3]].

Although the race has been tight in recent weeks, and McCain even enjoyed a slender lead in the days after the Republican convention in early September, the storm force economic winds that have since passed over America have driven most of the unattached voters to seek protection beneath Obama's skirts. A Gallup poll released today has Obama in a double digit lead (52 per cent to 41) for the first time in this election, as even McCain sympathisers are finding it hard to commit to voting for a party that has presided over such a terrifying squandering of their retirement funds, reduction in the value of their properties and destabilization of their employment prospects.

In the same Guardian round up of opinion, Stephen Hess, who worked for a number of presidents between the fifties and seventies, said "If McCain were to win this election I think it would truly be the biggest upset in American political history... I don't think you can have an economic situation this bad, and not expect to throw out the in party."

Matt Bennett, from the Democratic think tank Third Way, was also not surprisingly pessimistic about McCain's prospects. "I would say that he's in intensive care, but not quite in hospice at the moment," he said. "He's just not a skilled enough campaigner and he's in such a tight spot that there's no magic bullet he could fire."

However, the Democrats are unsurpassed in their ability to rain on their own parade come election time. No political organisation with the power and influence of the American Democratic party has allowed themselves to be deprived of office, whether by their own incompetence (such as in 1988) or because the Republicans bullied them out of it (such as in 2000) with quite such regularity.

Could this compulsion to shoot themselves square in the knackers come election time still have time to affect the outcome? As for incompetence, the Democrats are handling themselves quite well. They nearly tripped up over the Reverend Wright issue (the pastor who was close to Obama but turned out to have some unconventional opinions about America that didn't sound too good to voters) and were temporarily stunned by the Sarah Palin bounce, but they are showing all the signs of keeping it together.

As for Republican bullying, there's no doubt that the gloves will now come off. Obama is going to have to put on his reinforced insult shield, because the McCain campaign now has few options other than to call in the fleet of election class muckspreaders to fling some pungent dirt around. Their main problem is sourcing something to fling - the latest accusation of Obama's "palling around" with a "domestic terrorist" (a sixties Weather Underground radical turned college professor) is not currently sticking.

Another vain hope for McCain is that the economy suddenly perks up and this crisis evaporates - close on impossible. As is the optimistic belief that the newly enfranchised ranks of 18-2- year -old Obama voters won't make it out of bed on the days.

But while life appears to be ebbing from the Republican campaign, there are still another three weeks for them to rise from their death bed and spook the life out of the Democrats. To do otherwise just wouldn't be American.

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