US Politics / BePolitics.com / 02 November 2008 /

God Bless America? God bless the antiquities of the US electoral system more like which, given a minor miracle, could deliver Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to the Oval Office come November 4th. Anna Rutter from BePolitics tells all...

Confused? Let me explain. For McCain or Obama to win the race to the White House a clean-cut majority in the Electoral College is required, which translates to an absolute majority of 270 votes or more.

Whilst such a result should be guaranteed due to the long-term love affair most states have with one party or the other, an imperfect campaign finance structure with no limits on 'soft' spending, problematic ballot designs and the tendency of 24 hour news channels to downplay legitimate news in favour of attention grabbing stories have seen 21st century results become tighter and tighter.

Although Democratic hopeful Obama now seems to be making a convincing dash for the finishing post with the latest Gallup poll reporting an eight point lead for the Illinois Senator, there are a dozen ways for the College to tie given the 51 moving parts.

A glance at the Electoral map shows that the totally safe states for Obama add up to 200 votes, whilst McCain can claim 174. Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin all show signs of leaning to Obama, taking him to 222, while if McCain can gain Florida, Missouri and North Carolina it would bring the Arizona Senator to 227. Recent polls have put Barack Obama a nose ahead in these three states, but on election day all three could go either way.

This leaves seven states in the 'too close to call' category, but given the 2000 and 2004 election results it's not unreasonable to assign Michigan and Pennsylvania to the blue column, and Colorado, Ohio and Virginia to the red. If Obama then carries Nevada and New Hampshire, where recent figures show him in the lead, we have our 269-269 tie.

As far as the US Constitution goes, this is where the situation gets a little sticky. The Constitution states that if such a tie occurs, the House of Representatives 'shall immediately' chose a new President by ballot. If the newly elected House fails to come up with a majority, the task then falls to the Senate to choose an acting Commander-in-Chief until the deadlock is broken. If neither House can reach a majority, than the Speaker of the House, currently Ms Pelosi, would become acting President until the mess was resolved.

This may be a highly implausible scenario, but the House has been known to tie itself up in knots. You only have to look at votes taken on contentious issues such as funding for the Iraq war or the more recent $700 billion rescue plan for the US banking system.

However small the possibility, it is true to say that America could finally get its first female President, at least until the deadlock was broken.

Pelosi is already the politically highest ranking female in American history and is the second Speaker to be elected from a state west of the Rocky Mountains.

What would this mean for the world's most powerful nation? Pelosi is regarded as a Liberal, in part because she represents San Francisco, well known for its left-leaning politics, but also due to her voting record.

The Speaker consistently receives high ratings from liberal lobbying groups such as Americans for Democratic Action for her support for the legality of abortion; has a 93% percent positive voting record on civil liberties; voted for the increase of Medicare and Medicaid benefits and supports more rights for immigrants in the US.

Compare this to McCain, who opposes both universal healthcare and a federal minimum wage, and Obama who supports a ban on late term abortions and voted in favour of the 2006 Secure Fence Act, which authorized the construction of 700 miles of fencing along the US-Mexico border.

Could Pelosi be the liberal way forward that the US, stymied by 8 years of a Bush Presidency, is crying out for?

Probably not, but it's an interesting possibility. If you think a tie in the Electoral College is likely you can get 50-1 on Betfair by laying 'no' at [1.02], a big price if you think Pelosi has any chance on the back of this analysis.

BePolitics (www.bepolitics.com) is an online political community that allows you to reach and interact with people across the web. If you have an opinion then write an article and BePolitics promises to publish it. After that it's for everyone else to tell you what they think. Guaranteed readership, guaranteed feedback and probably guaranteed criticism too!

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