US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 01 February 2008 /

Election experts Chicken Dinner tell us why the Super Tuesday Primaries coming up in the US Presidential elections are so important

On February 5 - Super Tuesday! - the largest-ever number of US presidential primaries on a single day will be held. Twenty-four states are scheduled to stage either caucuses or primary elections for one or both parties. So far the race has been too close to call on either side, although the Republican field is one lighter with the withdrawal of Rudy Giuliani after a disappointing Florida. Until recently, analysts took it for granted that Super Tuesday would reveal the names of the two presidential nominees, now it seems that this national voting frenzy isn't going to clear anything up at all. How come?

Current prices for the Democrat nomination: Hillary Clinton [1.56] on Betfair to win, Barack Obama [2.86].

Current prices for the Republican nomination: John McCain [1.23], Mitt Romney [6.6], Mike Huckabee [34.0]

It's mathematically impossible

A Democrat needs around 2,025 delegates to win, but only 1,700 delegates will be at stake (and some of those are "unpledged" delegates). A Democrat would need to win every state on or before Feb 5 to claim the nomination, a virtually impossible feat. Republican rules provide more of an opening for a de facto nominee to emerge. A Republican needs 1,191 delegates to win, and more than 1,000 delegates are at stake, plus several states award all their GOP delegates to the candidate who wins the popular vote. March 4 primaries planned for Massachusetts, Ohio and Texas, and Pennsylvania on April 22 are now going to be of real consequence in securing frontrunner status.

It's too big and too early

The first Super Tuesday (1988) was designed as a way to settle nominating contests early, ending in-party bickering and saving cash. This year it has grown larger and more complicated than anticipated - so many big and expensive states are in play that no single nominee has the cash and time to compete in them all. Both Democrat and Republican runners will concentrate on a few key targets. If each Republican sticks to home turf (McCain = Midwest; Huckabee = South; Romney = Southwest) and win then there will only be fifty or so delegates between them. The Democrat battleground has a less even delegate distribution, so the three big prize states - California, New York and Illinois - are the imperative wins. But Democrat rules mean votes split proportionally in each state so the outcome will inevitably be deadlock.

It's too expensive

The nature of the super primary (70 million people voting on the same day) means that door-to-door canvassing has had to be scrapped, and nationwide advertising is financially prohibitive. Candidates have instead carefully invested in specially isolated areas, thus making landslide victories unlikely. Where Super Tuesday will be more interesting is in how it fades out the lesser candidates and how they reallocate their allegiances and funds (usually to whoever leads the polls). Collateral damage will probably be massively in McCain's favour (Guiliani will endorse him today (Wednesday) when he officially drops out).

So who are the winners and losers?

Guiliani is the big loser for not even making it to Super Tuesday. McCain has most wind in his sails. The Democrat quandary is likely to remain unchanged - their rules prohibit easy wins and a lot is still left unaccounted for (some 800 'superdelegates' won't vote until the summer convention). Feb 5 will, however, tighten the Republican playing field - there are far fewer delegates to win, not really enough to sustain a three horse race, so any sign of weakness could force the race down to two men (probably McCain and Romney). The pollsters suggest McCain and Clinton will consolidate their leads, but everything is still to play for.

Visit the new Betfair Politics Zone launched for Super Tuesday: https://politics.betfair.com

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