US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 25 September 2008 /

John McCain needs to win the Presidential debates to become the next occupant of the White House - maybe that's why he's avoiding them, says Chicken Dinner.

The US economic crisis has threatened to derail the first Presidential debate - scheduled for Friday 26th October - as John McCain intends to suspend his presidential campaign so that he and Barack Obama can return to Washington to help Congress clean up the financial mess. Obama has rejected the move stating that a future president of the USA should be "able to deal with more than one thing at once."

The idea of either nominee getting their hands dirty in the economic crisis is risky in the extreme. The Herald Tribune states George Bush's call to get them involved "puts them directly on the line over an issue whose politics are mutating almost by the hour, forcing them to balance a sense that the country is angry about the prospect of being stuck with the bill for Wall Street's excesses against a chance that failure to act quickly could have dire economic consequences." As we reported in this column last week, a souring economy benefits Obama and the Democrats, he has more to gain by staying above the fray.

The political brinkmanship on offer on the eve of the first presidential debate highlights the importance of the next stage of the presidential campaign: going head to head on TV in millions of American homes. History shows that the presidential debates can prove decisive come Election Day and McCain's left-field 'suspension' tactic is being viewed in the Democrat camp as an attempt to avoid the battle while his momentum has seriously faltered in the last week. Betfair pundit punters have backed the Republican down to [2.86] and have Obama shorter than last week at [1.56].

In the 1984 debates, a 73-year old Ronald Reagan was asked whether his age would affect his ability to do the job. Reagan famously quipped "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience." Reagan's rival for the White House, Walter Mondale believes he lost the election at that moment: "I knew right then he'd gotten me, and that was the end of my campaign."

Democrat nominee Al Gore suffered a similar fate in 2000, when his childish antics cost him a ten-point swing in the polls and led to a mightily close election defeat. During the debate, Gore petulantly sighed and rolled his eyes as George Bush spoke and then aggressively approached his mild-mannered opponent in mid-sentence. Such is the scrutiny of the occasion that style is typically every bit as important as content.

McCain has every right to be concerned. Obama is the more proficient public speaker of the two candidates and the Illinois Senator should impress with his charismatic manner. McCain meanwhile will be largely dependant upon hard hitting policy and attempting to expose Obama's alleged lack of substance.

Despite McCain's stalling tactics, the first of the three debates should favour the Republican as it will focus on foreign policy, a topic in which he professes to be an expert. Obama does not consider foreign affairs one of his stronger suits and the Democrats are attempting to pile expectation on the 72-year old with unorthodox sport analogies: "This debate offers him major home-court advantage and anything short of a game-changing event will be a key missed opportunity for him."

Regardless of the topic of debate, and the meticulous planning of every possible answer, the rehearsed material is not where the debates will be won and lost; the candid discussion is key. According to realclearpolitics.com "It is that the unanticipated insight - the spontaneous, revelatory moment is what becomes a potent factor in the general election and a memorable touchstone in American political history."

The real value (comedy-value not necessarily betting value) will be with the Vice Presidential debate, a tete-a-tete that has received unprecedented levels of attention due to the media frenzy surrounding Sarah Palin. The Republicans are keen to shield the hugely inexperienced Palin and have thus demanded that her debate with Joe Biden follows a strict format for fear that the Alaska governor would otherwise spend much of the time defending her credentials. Biden himself is described in the New York Times as "a loquacious and gaffe-prone speaker" and could do more damage than good to the Democrat cause. Should be fun.

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