US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 17 March 2008 /

Chickendinner assess whether Obama is going edge the Democratic nomination...

This contest is rapidly developing into a metaphor for long, drawn-out battles with no apparent end in sight. In the future, painful divorces, gruelling boxing contests and world wars are going to be described as like Barack and Hillary all over again. Who'd have thought we'd reach a point where Puerto Rico - not even part of the US - mattered? And the longer this goes on, the uglier it gets. So where does this ding-dong cage fight head next?

Round 1 - Pennsylvania (April 22)

Pennsylvania, with 188 delegates at stake, is the last mega-state up for grabs. The demographic there is a near carbon copy of Ohio - older, blue-collar voters dominate, a terrain likely to favour Clinton. The Pennsylvania voters, amazed to find their vote of importance, are portrayed as beset with a single obsession: how to survive the terminal decline of their heavy industry. This was Ohio's prime concern too, and Clinton strolled it there. All the polls have Clinton ahead (from +4 to +33 points). Winner: Clinton.

Round 2 - Indiana (May 2)

Bordering Obama's home state of Illinois to the west, and "Clintonville" Ohio to the east, Indiana is poised for an epic identity crisis come polling day. Blacks and Hispanics are split, as are young and old, so neither candidate can rely on a core vote to give them a predominance over the 84 delegates at stake. Furthermore, the Indiana primary hasn't had any relevance for decades, so there is no precedent to fall back on.

However, Indiana is considered a solidly Republican state and hasn't backed a Democrat for the White House since 1964, which is good news for Clinton, who is regarded by some voters as more Republican than John McCain. Also, Clinton has recently been pushing an environmental agenda which plays nicely to a state with 24 state parks and hundreds of lakes. Winner: a tossup, advantage Clinton.

Round 3 - The North West

Montana, South Dakota, Oregon and mid-western Nebraska collectively amount to a whopping 143 delegates and should be regarded as a mega-state in their own right. And it's all likely to fall to just one person: Obama. His message of change has gone down a treat in the north west, already propelling him to safe victories in Washington, Idaho, and, this weekend, Wyoming. Winner: Obama.

Round 4 - North Carolina (May 2)

Earlier this year, Obama posted easy wins in South Carolina, Georgia and Virginia. North Carolina has a large population of black voters, and early polling shows the Illinois senator faring well. North Carolina's influence as a possible deciding factor (there are 134 delegates at stake, the last triple-digit treasure for the two candidates to divide) means Clinton will have to step up her campaign before the vote on May 2 in order to turn the numbers. But while she has roughly $12 million more in the bank than Obama, a Clinton victory still seems far-fetched. And wherever North Carolina falls, West Virginia (May 13) and Kentucky (May 20) are almost certain to follow. Winner: Obama.

Verdict

As of Wednesday, Obama had a total of 1,567 pledged and superdelegates to Clinton's 1,462. And the recent wins in Mississippi and Wyoming show that Obama is not yielding ground after Texas/Ohio. Both Obama and Clinton are unlikely to win enough delegates to secure the nomination before the summer convention, but Obama also has too strong a monopoly in the north west to prevent him finishing anywhere other than first place. Besides, even if Clinton were to win every remaining primary they'd need to be by unprecedented margins to overhaul Obama's lead. Hillary (currently at [3.9] with Betfair to be next Democrat leader) is still fighting, but Obama (at [1.4]) at last seems to have the maths locked up. Could there possibly an end to this thing?

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