US Politics / The Betfair Contrarian / 03 November 2008 / 1

All the rage is about Barack Obama walking away with the election this year, but hope still remains for the Republicans and John McCain, says the Betfair Contrarian...

For those of you unaware there's a world beyond sport, here's a news flash. There's a big old election on Tuesday in the United States, with the Democrat Barack Obama enjoying the momentum going into the final weekend's campaigning. He holds enough of a lead in the polls that should his rival John McCain stage a comeback it would make Spurs' heroic climb from the grave at Arsenal on Wednesday look like a children's party trick. Yet for all their advantage, the Democrats dare not believe they are going to win, such is their reputation for tripping over their bootlaces in the home straight. You can get McCain to win on Betfair at [8.6] (Obama is [1.13]) and the Contrarian for one will be having some of that. Here's why:

Obama can't rely on his young admirers getting out of bed.

From Friday's Guardian: "Potentially ... alarming for Obama is a detailed analysis in the Orlando Sentinel of early voting in Florida. While it shows a huge turnout among African-Americans, young voters on whom Obama is placing high hopes have yet to vote. Although the young have registered to vote in high numbers, only 15% of those under 35 have voted so far, the worst-performing demographic group in the analysis. If this trend were to be repeated on election day throughout the US, Obama's vote would be seriously dented." Is any group less tolerant of standing in long queues?

Obama leads in the polls, but the polls have got it wrong before. And recently.

Back in February, right at the start of the primaries (the process by which each party selects its candidate for the presidency) the pollsters confidently stated that Barack Obama would win in New Hampshire, some by a double digit advantage. When the votes were counted, however, the people of New Hampshire had preferred Hillary Clinton instead. "Rarely have pollsters and pundits been so wrong," said the Economist.

The press is talking about the "polls tightening"

Nationally Obama leads by between 5 and 6 points, although the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls has shown that lead to have come in from more than eight points since the beginning of the week.

There is a path to victory

Plenty of states are still up for grabs, and if McCain can find a last wind, there's no reason he can't take all of them. The RealClearPolitics map currently gives McCain 142 electoral votes, and he needs 270 to win. They have 85 electoral votes that could go either way, in the following states, all of which are traditionally Republican and winnable: Montana (3 votes), McCain holds a narrow lead; North Dakota (3), McCain is narrowly behind, but has held big leads during the run in; Indiana (11), McCain has led virtually throughout; North Carolina (15), Obama leads, but by a nose; Georgia (15), it will be a miracle if McCain loses here; Florida (27), Obama leads here by single digits, but Florida won it for the Republicans in 2000.

Then, McCain needs to take at least two big states from those Obama is confident of winning, such as Pennsylvania (21 votes) where he's cut Obama's lead from 14 points two weeks ago to single digits today, where they didn't care for Obama in the primary and where they love Sarah Palin; and Ohio (20 votes), where the Democrats fancied they'd win last time and blew it. If McCain can put that sort of devastating push together, the tiny handful of votes he then needs to win are bound to come (eg in Nevada). Game over.

There's a historical precedent for last minute presidential miracles.

Prior to the 1948 election virtual every measure of public opinion believed the race would be won by Thomas Dewey. He was considered so unbeatable that the Chicago Tribune even put out an election day issue with a "Dewey defeats Truman" headline. In the event, Truman carried the election by winning three key states, New York, Illinois and California by a margin of less than 1 per cent.

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1. Paul Hoffer | 03 November 2008

   What McCain/Palin need to do is get the public In Ohio, PA, and other coal producing states to hear the Youtube audio of Obama promising to put the coal industry out of business by taxing them for carbon emissions before Tues. That might make the difference.

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