US Politics / Mike Robb / 04 November 2008 / 2

Missouri is the bellwether state in the United States. In every single presidential election since 1904 bar one (1956), Missouri has voted for the man who has gone on to become President. Will they be right this time?

Let's look at the facts:

1. Missouri is always right

2. The term 'bellwether' comes from the Middle English 'bellewether', referring to the placing of a bell around the neck of a ram leading a flock of sheep

3. Barack Obama's father was a Kenyan goat farmer

Therefore, all the signs point to Missouri falling firmly for Obama? No? Well, maybe. Read on for some slightly more reasoned analysis...

In the state's presidential primary on Super Tuesday back in February, Missouri was one of the most interesting states to watch on Betfair and the same could be true on election night proper. Hillary Clinton reached the minimum odds of [1.01] (giving her a 99% chance of winning) but went on to lose.

It seems that people hadn't been watching the figures closely enough. Clinton was on 49% of the vote but only 97% of precincts had reported, most of which were located in Missouri's urban centres, particularly St. Louis. What happened? Obama went on to win the rest of the 3% and win the state overall 51:49%.

It was another story of not being complacent when it comes to politics betting. It looked so certain that Hillary had it in the bag (just as it did with Obama at [1.01] before the New Hampshire primary) but the punters were clearly not taking in all the facts.

The key message here is that in most cases you can 'buy' yourself some free money by backing a short priced favourite in elections, but sometimes you'll get caught out. If you're going to do this be sure you know all the facts - if there is a mathematical possibility they could lose, especially if you investigate further to find out the votes left to report were coming from one or particular area where a candidate is strong, you should be wary about piling in.

Missouri is a barometer for national opinion in the United States. It has rural farmlands, densely populated cities, large black populations, extreme far-right Christian fundamentalists and, yes, one of the nation's most revered baseball teams. It has one republican senator, one democratic senator, a republican governor and a republican controlled Congress. In other words, it's a mix. There is no reason to call it a red state or a blue state, it is a pure battleground state and the way it votes can say a lot about the outcome of the whole election.

Then again, 2008 could see a repeat of the aforementioned 1956 inaccuracy. All we know is that the Missouri market is going to be a betting bonanza. If you are one of the lucky residents of the Show Me State you will be going to the polls on November 4th to vote not only for your next president, but also your next governor, not to mention the state elections and plethora of ballot initiatives.

It's a big year for Missouri, and betting should be fervent, but will they be right again?

This year's betting: (Click to bet)
Missouri State Betting
Missouri State Handicap Betting (Obama =5.5%)
Missouri Governor Betting: Jay Nixon (Democrat) v Kenny Hulshof (Republican)

Important information

- Timezone: GMT -6

- Polls open: 12PM GMT

- Polls close: 1AM GMT

- Abbreviation: MO

- Electoral college votes: 11

Demographics

- White: 85.1%

- Hispanic: 2.8%

- Black: 11.5%

Political history

- Senators: Kit Bond (Republican) and Claire McCaskill (Democrat)

- Governor: Matt Blunt (Republican)

- 2004 voted for: Bush

- Electoral College votes: 11

Other stats

- Population: 5.9 million

- State nickname: The Show Me State

- State capital: Jefferson City

- Most famous offspring: Bill Bradley, T.S. Eliot, James Fulbright, William Lear, Jesse James, Harry Truman, Mark Twain, Dick Van Dyke, Budweiser beer

- Strange fact: the first ever parachute jump from a plane took place in St. Louis in 1912

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1. Stanley Missourian | 03 November 2008

   One Correction to the above:

   Matt Blunt bowed out of the race for governor a while back.

   Polls currently have Jay Nixon(D) ahead of Kenny Hulshof(R).

2. Betfair Admin | 03 November 2008

   Thanks for pointing out that error, the post has been changed to reflect that.

   The Betfair Team

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