US Politics / BePolitics.com / 13 November 2008 /

Mitt Romney leads the field of Republicans to stand in 2012, but in the meantime what is Barack Obama going to do that could impact the mid-terms in 2010 and beyond? Gregory Crouch at BePolitics gives us his take...

The election of Barack Obama is a truly historic moment for the United States and a huge relief to vast numbers of people around the globe. For the first time this century it is possible to feel optimistic about the US and its future role in the world. Obama has spoken of the importance of engaging with allies, opening dialogue with 'rogue states' such as Iran and pursuing multilateral channels to tackle global problems such as climate change. On the domestic front he has promised to extend healthcare, increase the tax burden on the rich and offer relief to ordinary people caught up in the financial crisis. This alone is enough to satisfy progressives the world over - the fact that he is also black represents a triumph for minorities and mainstream society alike.

So Obama and his supporters will undoubtedly feel entitled to celebrate. But once the party is over, Americans must face up to the fact that their country is in crisis - at home and abroad. Firstly, most US citizens won't need reminding that their economy is suffering the most severe recession in decades, and that things are likely to get worse before they get better. The doctrine of free markets and unbridled capitalism has come crashing down, shaking the beliefs of many in America who see government regulation or intervention of any kind as deeply undesirable. Steering the American economy through this mess is unlikely to be easy.

Secondly, and more importantly, the US must fundamentally reassess its position and role on the global stage. Cheney and Rumsfeld talked of creating a 'New American Century'. Such a view now seems outdated and faintly ridiculous. Overstretched by two wars it has no chance of winning, shamed by human rights abuses and the loss of countless innocent lives, reeling from the disastrous 'war on terror' - Bush's legacy is in tatters. It is time for America to do some soul searching, as well as radically re-think US foreign policy.

This is problematic, even for an inspirational individual like Obama. On the one hand, his willingness to embrace multilateralism may be seen as a tacit acknowledgement that America, its military power and moral authority severely weakened, can no longer simply 'go it alone'. But on the other, no political public figure in the US, Obama included, dares talk openly about the strong possibility of a long, irreversible decline in American power and status. To do so would be seen as unpatriotic; during an election campaign it would have been political suicide. This is largely because parts of the media - as well as irresponsible politicians - foster an unrealistic sense of self-importance and nationalism amongst American citizens. To many of them, contemplating an end to American hegemony is pure anathema.

Over the coming years, as 'new world' powers such as China and India race to catch up and the US quietly extracts itself from the Middle East quagmire, Americans must reluctantly accept a smaller role in global affairs. It is Obama's job to gently soothe his compatriots and massage the huge - but bruised - American ego.

Meanwhile, betting on whether or not Barack Obama will win a second term is already underway on Betfair. The Democrat is [1.84] favourite to win in 2012, with Hillary Clinton unlikely to challenge at [34.0]. The Republican field looks very open. Mitt Romney heads the group at [17.5], Mike Huckabee is in there at 18.0] and this years' failed VP candidate, Sarah Palin, is as big as [27.0]. The latter seems a big price given her status over the past few months and clear indication that she will run again.

Click here to bet now

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