US Politics / Ari Last / 04 November 2008 / 1

A state with a history of close run election day battles and with a vast amount of electoral seats up for grabs, Pennsylvania is a battleground that the Democrats will be keen to hold onto, and the Republicans desperate to snare...

In an election campaign seemingly dominated by storylines of Barack Obama cunningly and audaciously moving in on John McCain's territory, in the case of the "Keystone" state the roles have most certainly been reversed, with the Republican Party trying to buck a trend that has seen Pennsylvania vote blue on the last four occasions.

It would not be unreasonable for one to wonder why in a campaign which seems to be slipping away from them, the Republicans have decided to pour much time and money into winning a state which for so long has proven out of reach. The answer lies within the finer details which when studied reveal that although defeated ever since 1992, the results of recent elections have always been extremely marginal, with Al Gore and John Kerry both defeating George W. Bush by very few percentage points in 2000 and 2004.

The wide open spaces of rural Pennsylvania have long been seen as Republican zones, yet in the growing, urban areas around and within the state's largest city Philadelphia, the Democratic vote has always been strong, and since 2004 it is believed to have grown.

Much focus surrounds Pennsylvania right now although this is nothing that the state won't be used to. It was the second to be admitted into the Union and its geographical location in the centre of the original 13 Colonies forming the United States has meant that being the main ingredient in the cauldron of American politics will represent nothing new.

There can be no doubt that according to the polls John McCain is facing an uphill struggle to win the state, which is made even worse with the presence of Joe Biden, who was born and bred in Delaware, on the Democrat ticket. A local voice within the camp could prove vital in winning over crucial, as of yet undecided votes.

Perhaps one reason for Republicans to remain optimistic is that McCain has been and is set to continue campaigning fervently in Pennsylvania up until November 4th. He's visited the area six times in the past two weeks and while he's been accused of not focusing enough attention on other worthwhile states, the same cannot be said for his efforts in this part of America's North East. As mentioned above, President Bush narrowly missed out on victory here in the last two elections and the Republican effort in the state has been far more concerted this time around, yet unfortunately for them they currently face a formidable opponent.

For all of the Republican's stellar work, the Obama machine has been equally if not more effective in Pennsylvania, reportedly signing up 320,000 new voters since the start of the year. A figure such as this is bound to make opponents gasp, yet all will be well aware that there is a significant difference between a person being willing to register, and a person being willing to go out and vote.

In politics no result is certain, yet traders on Betfair clearly believe that in this case, one party is currently far better positioned to win then the other.

A Democratic triumph can be backed at odds of [1.12] while for those that fancy a Republican victory; odds of [7.2] are currently available.

Perhaps punters confidence is stemming from superstition, Pennsylvania is known for introducing America to the Pretzel, and the feeling on the markets is that it could well be the scene of another Republican choke.

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1. Bobbi P | 01 November 2008

   Last Thursday evening the McCain office in Willow Grove (Montgomery County) PA had one person present. This has been red territory in many prior election cycles but Montco has been turning blue in the past few years, although not yet this exact voting district (unless this recently changed during the recent registration push). When we went in, he jumped up from his computer and excitedly offered us one of the hundreds of lawn signs stacked all along one wall. There was a table stacked high with sweatshirts, t-shirts, bumper stickers. One wall had a few posters, mostly blank space.

   My daughter and I had stopped in, just to see what was going on. We had heard stories of AZ campaign offices where the Obama office was bustling with activity and the McCain office inactive, so wanted to compare two neighboring offices on our own turf - in a highly contested area of a battleground state.

   After a little conversation we left, declining offers of a lawn sign (or three) and drove about three miles south to the Obama office in Jenkintown.

   The office was packed with volunteers - two people at the front desk directing visitors and volunteers, no open seats to be found - every seat taken by one the dozens of people on their cell phones, tapping data into their laptops, or studying lists, readying walk packets, etc. Not a postage stamp speck of blank wall space open - walls completely papered with planning charts, sign-up sheets, walk information, call information, posters, inspirational messages, and so much more. The noise level was pretty high (how can those callers hear, on their cell phones?).

   Not a lawn sign or bumper sticker to be had. We were told that a box might arrive for distribution and within hours the contents are gone. The office can't keep anything in stock.

   There are two dedicated and earnest paid staffers, one of whom is local and has been a longtime Obama supporter, having organized primary voting. Hillary took the primary here, but not for lack of trying. The other staffer is on leave of absence from her Washington DC job. Their dedication and enthusiasm is obvious and contagious. Volunteers are upbeat and happy, if they harbor any anxiety it is well masked.

   The mass of volunteers and the organization these organizers have built is amazing and they are an inspiration to all who enter. We forgot to ask how many volunteers on their roster, but it was in the hundreds a few weeks ago (we asked, on an earlier visit). (In the interest of full disclosure, we are also volunteers for the office, since the primary when we too worked for Obama).

   The contrast between the two offices can't be any more distinct. Now it is 9:15 Saturday morning and I cannot wait to get to the office for my day's workplan.

   Bobbi

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