Clinton victory may not be on the cards

US Politics / Andrew Hughes / 06 November 2007 / 1

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US politics mole Andrew Hughes on why Hillary Clinton has a lot of work to do before being in genuine contention for the presidency

Not only has there never been a female President, there has never been a female nominee for President from either Democrats or Republicans. Both of those facts could be about to change. Hillary Clinton is the only woman in the race to succeed Dubya, but she is a long way ahead of her Democratic rivals and appears to be on an inexorable march into the history books. Even so, the current (1.94) is terrible value and I certainly wouldn't want to back the Senator from New York at that sort of price.

It is true that the polls give her leads over most of the main Republican candidates in hypothetical head to head match-ups, but she is trailing slightly current Republican favourite Rudi Giuliani. And when you factor in the evidence that the Democratic race isn't as one-sided as it appears, together with the surprises and pitfalls that any election campaign throws up, I think anyone lumping on at odds-on at this stage, with over a year to go, would be crazy.

So why are the odds on another Clinton Presidency so short? I think it is simply that people are being misled by her big lead in the national polls, somewhere in the region of twenty points or so, according to the most recent Rasmussen history polls. But you should be wary of assuming that national polls will automatically translate into votes in the state primaries. The way the nomination process works, huge emphasis is placed on results in the first few states. A couple of shaky early results and all momentum can be lost and a candidacy can be dead in the water.

And when you examine the polls in those early states, Clinton's share of the vote appears less impressive. It is somewhere around the 45% mark nationally, but only in Florida and Michigan does it touch 42%. In New Hampshire and South Carolina, it is below 40% and in the crucial early state of Iowa, her share is a much less impressive 30%. Given the unpredictable nature of caucus voting in that particular state, it is far from certain that she'll win it. A defeat there, while being far from terminal for her campaign, will be a massive boost to her main challengers, Barack Obama and John Edwards ,and will see her current lead slashed.

And an awful lot can happen between now and the day when Americans choose their next President, on 4th November 2008. Republicans have had the best part of two decades to rehearse and refine their attacks on Hilary Clinton and the assault will reach a peak of intensity the closer she gets to the political summit. Already this year, she has endured the Norman Hsu and the full strength of pro-Republican media outlets will be turned on her long before she gets near the White House. Whilst she has had plenty of experience in dealing with that during the last twenty years, it will still be a stern test. At this stage, there is no way I would be lumping on at 1.94 on Hilary Clinton being the first ever female President.

But despite the length of the election trail, this promises to be a fascinating campaign, with the possibility of the first female or black President and the wide open Republican race. I'll be following it to the bitter end and advising how best to make it pay so if you've got any questions about any aspect of the campaign, US Politics or the current state of the betting market, drop me a line using the comment facility below.

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Barry | 21 November 2007

Only the time factor makes the odds on a clinton victory seem cramped as the democratic nomination is in the bag and only julian i has a realistic chance of giving hilary a run for her money and her odds of being president are much better than for a democratic victory in which she is head and shoulders above her rivals !