US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 31 October 2007 /

Chicken Dinner assess the betting in a rather unseemly jostle between the runners and riders for the Republican Presidential nomination

In the absence of a candidate who suits both the party and the national votership, the race for the Republican nomination feels like a coachload of pensioners who've just spotted the buffet. In fact, it's a Giuliani/Romney two-horse race, and only a mistake on their part, or a truly impressive smear campaign, will let the rest of the field in.

The main runners...

Rudy Giuliani ([2.3] on Betfair).
The former mayor of New York plays quite well nationally, but is a disaster as far as the party is concerned. He's had too many divorces (two too many), is on the wrong side of the abortion and gun control debates, and even used to share an apartment with gay men. The party likes that he's pro-war, but as the Guardian wrote, "At 34%, the proportion of Americans who support the war is identical to the proportion ... who believe in ghosts and UFOs". The big Christian right leaders are not faking their hatred for Giuliani, and have even threatened to put up a third party candidate. Without their support he would find it near impossible to become president. But, he's still Mr 9/11, by far the most agile bare-knuckle politician and has a big lead in national polls. Won't win in Iowa, probably won't win in New Hampshire, but is expected to carry Florida then crush all opposition on Super Tuesday (Feb 5). His race to lose.

Mitt Romney ([3.5] on Betfair).
Where Giuliani is the tough guy, Romney is the business guy, who'd like voters to think he could stick his hands into the sub-prime mortgage fiasco and untangle it. As a Mormon he also likes to present himself as an upstanding man of principle, even while shamelessly shifting his position on key issues - so much so that he never would have got his last job as Governor of liberal Massachusetts talking the kind of conservative chapter and verse he currently spouts. His Mormon faith plays like nails on a chalk board to the religious right, but at least he's not Giuliani. Should win in both Iowa (Jan 3) and New Hampshire (date not set), and no presidential candidate since 1972 in either party has failed to win the nomination after winning both those states.

Fred Thompson ([10.5] on Betfair).
Better known as DA Arthur Branch from Law & Order, former Senator Fred Thompson's campaign is going nowhere. His "low energy speeches and lethargic campaign schedule" have derailed his efforts, and he even admitted he doesn't go to church every Sunday, leaving himself just one good foot to shoot at between now and January.

John McCain ([16.0] on Betfair).
Made the mistake of doing well against the Bush organization early on in the race for the 2000 nomination. Bush and Karl Rove then began a smear campaign that McCain's adopted Bangladeshi daughter was actually his illegitimate black child, that his wife was a drug addict, that he was gay, and that his five years as a prisoner of war had driven him insane (you've gotta love 'ole Dubya!!). Hard to imagine such a badly bruised candidate ever winning again.

Mike Huckabee ([20.0] on Betfair).
By far the most interesting outside candidate. A former pastor who doesn't believe in evolution (so the right love him), he was the Governor of Arkansas, and so knows also all about the Clintons and theoretically, how to beat them. He's not a nut though, is the only serious anti-war candidate, is from a poor background and so has great populist credentials, unlike the snooty and rich patricians leading the race. He is gaining ground rapidly in Iowa, and could come as high as second, which would help overcome his big disadvantage - a lack of money. Price will shorten.

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