US Politics / Chicken Dinner / 21 February 2008 /

The election betting experts over at Chicken Dinner tell us why odds of [4.7] to back Hillary Clinton on Betfair represent a 'terrific price'

Barack Obama swept to victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii on Tuesday, bringing the number of consecutive contests won so far in the Democrat race since Super Tuesday into double figures. This puts him for the first time since campaigning began over a year ago at a noteworthy margin from rival Hillary Clinton, whose campaign is faltering under the pressure of Obama's protracted winning streak (on Betfair she currently trails Obama [4.7] to [1.27] to be the Democratic nominee).

But there is still space for a dramatic turnaround: Clinton is only one point behind Obama in a nationwide poll (source: Pollster) and could restore her lead in the forthcoming Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania primaries. Could this be the optimum moment to pile on Hillary, or has she missed the boat?

Future primaries

Obama is still only 91 delegates ahead of Clinton (1354 to 1263)and both are considerably short of the target needed for become the official Democratic candidate (2,025). Then again, the sheer perception that Clinton is losing is sometimes enough to foist presidential hopes. Her moment of truth comes at the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4 (with a massive 389 delegates between them), which will either be the firewall that salvages her campaign from the flames, or the nail in the coffin. A RealClearPolitics poll puts Clinton ahead at +17.3% in Ohio and +7.6% in Texas, but the contest is a couple of weeks away, and in nearly every state that has voted, she has led by double digits weeks before only to see her leads melt by primary day.

Policies

On issues such as the war in Iraq, healthcare, taxes, or indeed virtually anything else, Obama and Clinton share almost identical outlooks. The fault lines in the contest instead fall largely along differences in identity. Exit poll data demonstrates that if you're African-American, you'll vote for Obama 81% of the time, something Obama profits from substantially. Clinton's core demographics (uneducated, elderly, working class) seem to have softened a little, complicated by factors such as geography and profession.

Fortunately for her, the demographic makeup of upcoming state primaries in Texas/Ohio closely resembles her core support. Clinton's largest single demographic voting blocs are the uneducated and Hispanics, and only 23% of Ohio and 25% of Texas has a college degree, and 36% of the population in Texas is Hispanic.

Media coverage

Recently, Clinton has come under fire for "negative campaigning", trying to paint Obama as a candidate of style over substance. The last time Clinton tried to draw a stark contrast with Obama was at the run-up to South Carolina, a strategy that failed miserably. This time round, however, the Obama campaign has retaliated by launching commercials and pamphlets condemning Clinton and raising a few sallies of its own. And yet Clinton still bears the brunt of media animosity.

Why? Put simply, Obama's campaign makes a better story (PEJ's NCI report says Obama has been in 41.3% of main news stories). Meanwhile, Clinton carries a ton of baggage from her time as First Lady and is not as naturally likeable. Plus, in a (largely) male-dominated press it's no surprise Clinton gets a rougher ride.

Comeback Queen or Last Chance Kid?

Obama-mania is unlike anything in US political history. He has managed to harness the power of a hard-to-impress resource (young college voters), won over the press and broken records in campaign fundraising (he raised $32 million in January alone). Any traditional candidate would have been swamped. The fact that Clinton is still standing and holding her own (her poll rating has remained consistent throughout the campaign) sends out a strong message what an exceptional candidate she is. This election has been so topsy-turvy there may well be more twists to come. And considering Hillary is still in the game, 4.7 is a terrific price.

Click here to back Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Nominee market

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