US Politics / Ari Last / 04 November 2008 /

The 1996 hit film "Swingers" starring a young Vince Vaughan and Jon Favreau to the untrained eye was a tale of the highs and lows of Las Vegas nightlife and debauchery, yet for those with a keen eye on Politics and a rather odd sense of humour, the film could also have been seen as a reference to the State of Nevada's voting history.

A" Swing" State if ever there was one, Nevada is currently polling as a "toss up" after spending eight years in Republican Red. Due its sparse population, the State only holds 5 electoral votes however that won't stop it being fiercely contested by either candidate. After all, it's now seven straight elections in which Nevada has backed the eventual winner, both men therefore know that a victory here usually means the Presidency.

You wouldn't have guessed it by walking through the State's biggest City, but Nevada has traditionally been knows as quite a conservative part of the world. And the Republican case in the region has been boosted by the fact that as Westerner John McCain is seen by many as most in touch with the sentiments and needs of the local population.

The Democrats however have been making progress and with the housing market stagnant and Nevada suffering the highest home foreclosure rate in the country, many are feeling aggrieved by what they feel has been an irresponsible Republican Government, and are looking for a change.

A key factor in how this vote is going to go is the emergence of the Hispanic vote in Nevada. Recent studies have shown that the number of Hispanic voters now registered to vote in the State has grown dramatically. Since 2000 the Hispanic population has grown by 65% but remarkably, their registered voting population has grown by over 100%.

This will no doubt please Senator Obama who is known to be far more popular amongst Hispanics then his rival John McCain with a recent poll suggesting that 58% of Hispanics will vote Democrat compared to 25% who will opt for the Republicans.

A reason for this is that with many Hispanics being young immigrants, they are especially concerned with the country's economic situation. Nevada has been described as the "Ground Zero" of the Country's political meltdown and Obama's perceived edge in economic matters could give him the push he needs to secure the State.

90 per cent of Nevada's population live in Las Vegas' Clark County or Reno's Washoe County, making the campaigning particularly localized. Las Vegas, a liberal part of the world to say the least has historically been kind to the Democrats while Rural Nevada has been dominated by Republicans for some time. It's therefore in Washoe County where the fate of the 5 electoral votes on offer will be decided and with the Hispanics making up 12% of the voting population there, the Democrats greater appeal to that particular group could prove key.

Betfair punters seems to be well aware of this notion, they're currently backing the Democrats at 1.31 to emerge victorious in Nevada while the Republicans can be backed at odds as long as 3.34, a value bet indeed when you consider that most polls still see this state as very much undecided and susceptible to a late swing.

FACTS:

Capital : Carson City

Nickname : Silver City

Population: 2,565,322. (35th in USA)

Land Area: 110,567 sq mi (7th in USA)

Admission to Union: October 31st 1864

Governor: Jim Gibbons (Rep)

Recent Voting History:

2004 - R
2000 - R
1996 - D
1992 - D
1988 - R
1984 - R
1980 - R

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