US Election Betting: Who won the debate, and does it matter?

The Betfair Prof / Leighton Vaughan Williams / 30 September 2008 / 1

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With just over a month to go before America chooses its next president, the Betfair Prof discusses the latest polls and examines how the Betfair markets responded during the first live televised debate.

So who won the first US Presidential debate between Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator John McCain of Arizona?

Well, there's more than one way of looking at this. You can look at the 'instant polls' conducted by some of the networks in the immediate aftermath of the debate, or you can look at the 'focus group' findings of Republican pollster Frank Luntz, or you can look at polling conducted in the days following the debate.

In the instant polling, Obama won by 51% to 38% (CNN/Opinion Dynamics). In the CBS poll of undecided voters, 40% thought Barack Obama was the winner, 22% chose John McCain and 38% scored it a draw. 46% came away with a better opinion of Obama, compared to 8% with a worse opinion (46% no change).

In comparison, 32% came away with a better opinion of McCain, 21% a worse opinion, and 47% no change. In other words, Obama's ratio of better to worse in the CBS poll was almost six to one compared to 1.5 to one for McCain.

I expected a different opinion to emerge from Frank Luntz's focus group, as they usually seem (at least in my opinion) to emerge with the pre-existing views of the Republican analyst and Fox News regular contributor himself. Not so for once, as the group called the debate a win for the Democrat.

Move forward to the latest post-debate polling, by USA Today/Gallup, and all this is confirmed. When asked which candidate offered the best proposals to solve the country's problems it was Obama by 52% to 35%. As to who did better overall in the debate, it was Obama by 46% to 34%. In light of these statistics, it is interesting to examine how the Betfair market on 'Next US President' reacted in-running to the cut and thrust of the debate.

As moderator Jim Lehrer opened proceedings, it was possible to back Obama at [1.55], the equivalent of just short of a 65% chance. Twenty minutes into the debate and the Democrat had shortened to [1.52] and stayed there or thereabouts until the end of the section of the debate dedicated to the financial crisis. The economy is, according to conventional wisdom, Obama's strong suit, and the market reflected that his performance was if anything better than expected. As soon as the debate turned to foreign affairs proper, however, the money began to switch to McCain, and by the end of the debate it was possible to back Obama at [1.56], a touch longer than available at the start of the debate. Fast forward to 10 am (UK time), though, and Obama was trading at [1.54]. Given his pre-debate price of [1.55], nothing much had changed at all.

So the polls tell us it was Obama who won it; the markets, on the other hand, seem to tell us that the debate may as well have not taken place for all the effect it had on the election. Now contrast the failure to pass the financial bailout package. Obama shortens from [1.5] to [1.42]. That's the effect of real news!

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Michael Wilson | 03 October 2008

I have found a widget that has the latest poll results.
I think you might like it:-)

https://www.youcalc.com/apps/1221747067033

... and its easy to put on your blog and fits in your sidebar!

The widget shows the election polls by strength of states.
In addition to other different graphical visualizations of data, this one displays the progression of votes over time.
Hereby you can see how/if the states have moved!

Make a difference, keep on voting!