The Betfair Prof / Leighton Vaughan Williams / 03 September 2008 /

Will craps loving McCain's Hail Mary land him the White House or set him further back? The Betfair Prof reports.

John McCain's choice of Alaska senator Sarah Palin as his running-mate tells us little about the former beauty contestant and small-town mayor, but a lot about Senator McCain.

Former Bush adviser David Frum put the case best when, in questioning the thoroughness of the vetting process of Governor Palin, and the apparent impulsiveness of the decision, he framed the issue as one about John McCain's judgement. It may well be, he mused, that she turns out fine. If so, he contended, the Arizona Senator's' decision to appoint her could be likened to the man who takes the monthly mortgage money, bets it all on black at the local casino and wins. "He's lucky", argued Frum, "but it's still not a good decision."

Another way of looking at the appointment makes the decision look somewhat more rational. Say, for the sake of argument, that McCain's senior advisers were telling him last week that on all known evidence he was heading for a defeat by, say, 3 percentage points. A relatively safe choice, such as Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, or Mitt Romney, might have helped tip a few votes into the Republican column, but it would not change the dynamic of the race. At best, it would mean losing by less. In Presidential politics, however, losing by one electoral vote produces the same outcome as losing by a hundred. To put it another way, if you are likely to go down by three points, anything which shakes up the range of reasonable outcomes around this expectation is a bonus. To this extent, if Sarah Palin can add or subtract 6 points to the expected outcome, this gives McCain everything from a 3-point win to a 9-point defeat, which is so much better than someone like a Romney, who might limit his margin of defeat to, say, 5 points, but might at best bring him to within a point of the White House.

From this perspective, the rational choice for Senator McCain, a man who it is said loves to play craps at the casino, might well be to simply roll the dice. To use statistical terminology, his best option might be to sacrifice some expectation of the mean (average) outcome for increased volatility and hence an increased range of reasonable expectations. It is what some American commentators have referred to as a 'Hail Mary' pass.

Wikipedia explains it as follows: "The typical Hail Mary is a very long forward pass thrown near the end of a half or end of a game where there is no probability for any other play to score points. This play is unlikely to be successful, because of the general inaccuracy of the pass and the defensive team's preparedness for the play makes it likely that it can intercept or knock down the ball".

This is, of course, a little unfair to the Republican candidate, as evidenced by the Betfair market which gives him more than a one in three chance of winning the White House. Even so, the analogy may contain a hint of the truth.

All of which leaves open the question of whether this particular volatility-enhancer is the best he could have come up with!

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