The Betfair Prof / Leighton Vaughan Williams / 12 August 2008 /

The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, tips Governor Brian Schweitzer as an outside bet in the race to become Barack Obama's vice presidential nominee...

In boxing terms, it was the equivalent of a knockout delivered courtesy of a firm fist to the jaw. I refer to the 1988 US Vice-Presidential debate and one of the most memorable moments in American campaign history. During that debate Republican vice-presidential nominee Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana noted that he had as much political experience as John F. Kennedy when Kennedy ran for President. The response of his Democratic opponent, Senator Lloyd Bentsen, floored the younger man. "Senator", he retorted, "I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy". What made the point so devastatingly effective was that it was so patently true.

Despite the knockout, and the perceived weakness of the man who once corrected a schoolboy's spelling of 'potato' to make it 'potatoe', the Bush-Quayle ticket went on to beat that of Dukakis-Bentsen in the general election. For the record, Senator Bentsen went on to serve of Secretary of the Treasury in the Clinton administration.

The moral of this story is that the choice of Vice-Presidential candidate has probably a much smaller impact on the outcome of the US general election than is commonly supposed. Indeed, it's not uncommon for the Vice-Presidential candidate not even to carry his or her (yes, there has been a 'her' - Geraldine Ferraro in 1984) own state. Indeed, the last occasion on which it is generally accepted that the VP pick swung the election was 1960, when Lyndon Johnson carried his home state of Texas and with that the Presidency for JFK.

Give this history, what should a Presidential candidate be looking for in a running mate? One suggestion is to choose someone who is likely at least to convert their own state from a toss-up to a win. In making this choice there is, however, a bit of a paradox which needs to be addressed. The paradox is this - if your VP pick can swing a big state that will put a lot more electoral votes into your column than would be the case with a small state; but one might guess that being chosen as VP is probably going to swing a bigger vote share in a smaller state than a larger one. After all, it's a bigger honour for your state if the VP is your home candidate in Wyoming than in California. On this basis, there may be some merit in choosing a candidate in one of the smaller toss-up states.

Who might fit the bill? Well, how about Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana? The affable farmer and rancher is the first Democratic Governor of the Bonanza State since 1988 and his appointment to the Obama ticket would very likely swing Montana's votes into the Democrat column. Problem is it carries only three electoral votes, compared to 13 for Virginia and 11 for Indiana (home states of current favourites Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh respectively).

Even so, I think there's some value if you can get very long odds about the man from Montana. The chances of the other hopefuls are, in my opinion, already priced into the market.

And then there's Hillary Clinton, of course. No chance. Maybe, but then again...

Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams is the Director of the Political Forecasting Unit and Betting Research Unit of Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University, and Editor of the Journal of Prediction Markets

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