The Betfair Prof / Leighton Vaughan Williams / 01 September 2008 /

The Prof picks up where Wittgenstein left off.

After Usain Bolt had jogged into the finals of the 100 metres, one might have been forgiven for taking any price about the Jamaican giant winning gold in the 100 metres
and 200 metres. And in the event, you would have been right to do so. After all, any price is value once the man is past the post and celebrating. The problem is that when you place the bet, the benefits of retrospect are not yet realized. Which leads to the bigger question. Are some events so certain that it really is worth taking any price?

To answer this I'd like to take you back to my blue-blazered secondary school days at Norwich School and the 'mock' GCSE exam in Latin. This was a subject in which my classmate Steve was quite able. So it came as a surprise to me when on the morning of the exam he declared that he was very nervous and would almost certainly get less than 10 per cent in the exam. I challenged him to an even bet on this eventuality which he readily accepted.

At the end of the exam I went up to him and asked him how he'd done. "Not well at all", he chortled, "the only thing I wrote was my name". At which point he stretched out his palm in expectation of payment. I offered to pay as soon as his mark was confirmed, simply because payment a week hence was preferable to payment on the spot. Nevertheless, I knew I'd been stung and was prepared to pay the price.

Fast forward a week and the day of reckoning was upon us as we sat in class awaiting confirmation of the marks awarded to each of the candidates. I was delighted with my mark, which exceeded my wildest expectations. I did not have long to wait to find out why. When the time came to announce Steve's score, I turned to see my nemesis sporting a broad grin in expectation of either zero marks or perhaps one for filling in his name. The grin lasted as long as it took the master to declare that Steve had earned 15 per cent! Exploding in bewilderment, he marched to the front for an explanation of this outrageous example of over-marking. The explanation was not long in coming. Because the average mark awarded was so low, the question paper had been re-assessed and it had been decided that it had been too hard. As a result, every candidate had benefited from the addition of an extra 14 per cent. Steve's one per cent for writing his name at the top of the paper had instantly been transformed into 15 per cent and a losing bet.

I stretched out my palm and to his credit was immediately paid. And so Steve lost the bet but learned something much more important. That there really is no such thing as a certainty!

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: