Oscars / Jack Houghton / 22 February 2012 /

The Artist has been wowing critical and public audiences alike, and it might even provide some value Oscar punting opportunities, provided you're prepared to look in the side markets, writes Jack Houghton.

It's hard to see any film beating The Artist to Best Picture honours at this year's Oscars. As the short-priced [1.09] favourite, though, that's no brave call.

Although up against some perfectly respectable films, it is the only contender of genuine originality - ironic, really, in that it rehashes an idea that audiences outgrew 80 years ago - and it will appeal to the supposedly conservative tastes of the Academy's estimated 6,000 voters.

Not that the Oscars have always offered safe harbour to odds-on punters. Back in 2006, Brokeback Mountain was thought to be a certainty for Best Picture at around [1.10], only to be upstaged by Crash; and, stretching back into the annals of Academy history, plenty of films - Rocky, Dances With Wolves, An American In Paris, and How Green Was My Valley - went on to win the top-gong when more critically-acclaimed productions were expected to prevail.

If there is to be an upset, it is most likely to come courtesy of Alexander Payne's The Descendants, currently available at around [40.0]. Winners of the Golden Globe for Best Drama have gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture 30 times in the last 60 years, but then whilst The Descendants won that award, The Artist picked up the same award in the Musical or Comedy category.

So when it comes to long odds-on Oscar bets, The Artist is probably one of the more solid propositions you'll find. However, some will want to find better value in the other markets.

Director of The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius, is available at the slightly more backable price of [1.20] in the Best Director market, but then finds himself up against Martin Scorsese, who picked up the Golden Globe for the category in January. And whilst films have a habit of doing the Oscar Best Picture and Best Director double - 72 per cent of the time, in fact, or 85 per cent of the time if you just look at the last 20 years - it's quite conceivable that the awards will be split this year: Hugo was Scorsese's first foray into 3D; the film met with universal critical acclaim; and Scorsese has only ever won one Oscar. The Academy Awards have often been criticised for rewarding individuals for a career's contribution, rather than the film in the question, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see an often-nominated Hollywood stalwart defeat an Awards-debuting French director.

Those wanting to support The Artist will find the best value in the Leading Actor market, where Jean Dujardin is available at the generous looking [1.72]. Along with his side-kick Jack Russell - played by Uggie - Dujardin is mesmerising in the part, and for all the film's originality and craft, it is doubtful it would have been as well-received with another actor in that lead role.

Continuing the French theme, Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris is a shoo-in to win the Best Original Screenplay award - evidenced by the fact that a silent movie is second-favourite in the market - and, although short-looking at [1.32], it's one to lump-on.

Recommendations:

5pts back Jean Dujardin at [1.72] in Leading Actor market.
10pts back Midnight in Paris at [1.32] in Original Screenplay market.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: