Mercury Music Prize / Maxliu / 19 July 2011 /

Mercury Music Prize betting aficionado Max Liu takes an early look at this year's shortlist.

Let England Shake is a fine, fine piece of work and I would be delighted if it won the 2011 Mercury Music Prize. However, with PJ Harvey as favourite in the Betfair market at [3.5] I won't be backing her to repeat her 2001 success.

The favourite won last year but I don't think it's a profitable punting position to take in a field of this size. And on an event so famously unpredictable.

Now, this column has made history by correctly tipping two out of three of the last Mercster laureates - Speech Debelle at 14/1 and Elbow at 7/1 - and I want it noted that the present document is very much a first draft. I won't be backing Guy Garvery and co. to repeat their 2008 success at [26.0] because two-time winners are a rarity and Build A Rocket, Boys! is the Bury quintet's weakest long player.

I'd be delighted if either King Creosote & John Hopkins at [12.5] - Diamond Mine is excellent but perhaps a little short at around 37 mins for judges' taste - or Anna Calvi - whose self-titled debut is a super-smart, sexy-swinging post-surf-rock lipstick romp and is available to back at [8.2] - were to triumph. But if I'm having an early bet, it's on Everything, Everything, at a juicy [15.0].

Everybody likes Everything, Everything. I don't like Everything, Everything but that's not what this is about; if it was, the King of Limbs - a challenging album that asks us to ask ourselves what we want from listening and, indeed, what listening is - would be at the top of that list. Oh, loss.

Here's the list in full:

1. Metronomy - The English Riviera
2. Adele - 21
3. PJ Harvey - Let England Shake
4. Gwilym Simcock - Good Days At Schloss Elmau
5. Tinie Tempah - Disc-Overy
6. James Blake - James Blake
7. Elbow - Build A Rocket, Boys
8. Everything Everything - Man Alive
9. Katy B - On A Mission
10. Ghostpoet - Peanut Butter Blues & Melancholy Jam
11. King Creosote & Jon Hopkins - Diamond Mine
12. Anna Calvi - Anna Calvi

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