Giro d'Italia Stage 12 Tips: Old timers for rapid descent

Vincenzo Nibali may be old, but he descends better than most

An open stage that might be won on the downhills, writes Jack Houghton, who will trust in the old boys to bring yet more profit

What's the stage like?

186km long, with three categorised climbs. The consensus when the route was announced was that this was a day for the breakaway - and it might still be - but whilst the ascents do not smack of a pivotal day in the General Classification, the descents suggest that this may not be entirely straightforward.

The route down from Passo Del Bocco is especially treacherous, and a buccaneering rider willing to risk all could easily build a lead on its slopes and hold it to the finish. If not, then the descent into the finish in Genoa - whilst not as tricky - might nonetheless reward a late attack.

The finish itself is flat, with a left-hand turn at the 1km to go mark. The field should be sufficiently thinned out by then to mean riders navigate that turn with little difficulty.

Who are the favourites?

With what seems the ironic, cruel and bizarre withdrawal of Stage-10 winning-tip Biniam Girmay from this year's Giro, Mathieu van der Poel (5.004/1) is the obvious choice for stage honours.

The course should just about suit him, although the hills are tougher and longer than the short, punchy types he excels most on. It would be no surprise to see him win, but the value likely lies elsewhere.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

A valid case can be made for a host of riders who might make the most of a breakaway, including Lennard Kamna (18.0017/1), Alessandro Covi (20.0019/1) and Magnus Cort (25.0024/1). Of these, Cort looks most suited by the terrain, and is worth a small bet at big odds.

This might be the day to support two of the oldest riders in professional cycling, though. Alejandro Valverde (80.0079/1) and Vincenzo Nibali (100.0099/1) are not typically top of many possible-stage-winner lists these days but, crucially, both are superb descenders, and it would be no surprise to see one or both attacking on that final climb.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

Many General Classification contenders will have circled this stage and placed a big red skull and crossbones next to it: it looks innocuous, but get caught out of position, lose concentration, or have a mechanical fault at the wrong time, and your Giro hopes might effectively be over.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Jack Houghton's Giro d'Italia 2022 P&L:

Staked: 21.5 Returned: 56.9 P/L: +35.4

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