USA / Timeform / 28 February 2012 /

In a new weekly series, Timeform profile a dozen of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5...

Kentucky Derby, May 5 2012, Churchill Downs (10 furlongs, dirt)

UNION RAGS Timeform Rating 124p, Trainer M Matz
Impressive winner of 4 of 5 starts, beating News Pending by easy 4 lengths in Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February, and is the top-rated 3-y-o male in North America. Wide throughout and probably unlucky in only defeat, at Breeders' Cup. Sprinting/miling pedigree but already stays 8.5f. May next run in 9f Florida Derby back at Gulfstream on March 31.

HANSEN Timeform Rating 118, Trainer M Maker
Won all 3 starts at 2 yrs, culminating in narrow defeat of Union Rags in Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Not at best when beaten 5 lengths by Algorithms at Gulfstream on return in January. Front-runner, who may be vulnerable beyond 8.5f.

CREATIVE CAUSE Timeform Rating 116, Trainer M Harrington
Winner of 3 of 6 starts, notably G1 Norfolk at Santa Anita at 2 yrs. Limitations seemingly exposed behind Hansen and Union Rags in Breeders' Cup and when only third at Santa Anita in February. Son of Giant's Causeway and better prospects than some of staying beyond 8.5f.

LIAISON Timeform Rating 116, Trainer B Baffert
Won 3 out of 4 as 2-y-o, notably Grade 1 Futurity at Hollywood Park by neck from Rousing Sermon. Favourite, clipped heels and unseated at Santa Anita in February. Son of Indian Charlie and stamina for beyond 8.5f has to be taken on trust.

SECRET CIRCLE Timeform Rating 115+, Trainer B Baffert
Fast juvenile, unbeaten in 3 starts, notably Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint by length from Shumoos. Stretched out to 8f this year, beaten half length by Out of Bounds at Santa Anita on first occasion and holding Scatman by same margin in Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn on second, in February. Some encouragement from breeding that he could stay further (sire (Eddington) gained biggest win at 9.5f).

ALGORITHMS Timeform Rating 114p, Trainer T Pletcher
Unbeaten in 3 starts, stepping up to Grade 3 level when beating Hansen comfortably by 5 lengths in Holy Bull at Gulfstream in January. Son of Preakness and Belmont winner Bernardini, out of a dam that won around a mile, and shapes like 10f could bring out the best in him. Reported in late-February to have fractured a splint and likely to miss Kentucky Derby.

GEMOLOGIST Timeform Rating 114p, Trainer T Pletcher
Unbeaten in 3 starts at 2 yrs, notably Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over 8.5f at Churchill Downs, accounting for Ever So Lucky by nearly 2 lengths. Son of Tiznow, and seems a likely stayer at 10f in same colours as 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. Appearances in 2012 so far restricted to track workouts.

DULLAHAN Timeform Rating 114, Trainer D Romans
Only win from 6 appearances at 2 yrs was in Grade 1 Futurity at Keeneland by three-quarters of a length from Majestic City. Fourth to Hansen in Breeders' Cup on final outing. Half-brother to a Kentucky Derby winner in Mine That Bird and should be suited by further than 8.5f.

EL PADRINO Timeform Rating 114, Trainer T Pletcher
Won 1 from 3 as a juvenile and both starts this year, notably Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds last time by nose from Mark Valeski. Son of Kentucky Derby fourth Pulpit and shapes as if will stay beyond 9f himself. Stable has other strong contenders.

I'LL HAVE ANOTHER Timeform Rating 114, Trainer D O'Neill
Won maiden and second to Creative Cause in Grade 2 at Del Mar from 3 runs at 2 yrs. Surprise winner of Grade 2 R B Lewis at Santa Anita in February, by two-and-three-quarter lengths from Empire Way. Sire (Flower Alley) won 10f Travers but yet to try beyond 8.5f himself.

ALPHA Timeform Rating 113, Trainer K McLaughlin
Won 1 out of 3 at 2 yrs and both this term, most recently Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct in February by three-and-a-quarter lengths from Speightscity. Behind Union Rags the two times they met, though presumably wasn't himself in Breeders' Cup. By Bernardini, out of 11.5f winner from the family of Swain, and seems near certain to stay the 10f Derby distance, having so far tried no further than 8.5f. Owned by Godolphin.

OUT OF BOUNDS Timeform Rating 112p, Trainer E Harty
Won once from 2 starts in maidens at 2 yrs. Much improved when winning Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita in January by half length from Secret Circle, late run to overhaul fading rival. Has worked out at Hollywood Park since. Owned by Sheikh Mohammed. Son of Discreet Cat (best wins around mile) and 9f Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Unbridled Elaine, and runs as if beyond 8f will be within his scope.

Kentucky Derby Diary:
Saturday March 3: G3 Gotham Stakes, Aqueduct 8.5f;

Saturday March 10: G2 Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay 8.5f; G2 San Felipe Stakes, Santa Anita 8.5f;

Sunday March 11: G3 Palm Beach Stakes, Gulfstream 9f

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