USA / Timeform / 05 March 2012 /

Timeform bring you their latest update on the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5...

UNION RAGS Timeform Rating 124p, Trainer M Matz
Impressive winner of 4 of 5 starts, beating News Pending by easy 4 lengths in G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February, and is the top-rated 3-y-o male in North America. Wide throughout and probably unlucky in only defeat, at Breeders' Cup. Sprinting/miling pedigree but already stays 8.5f. May next run in 9f Florida Derby back at Gulfstream on March 31.

HANSEN Timeform Rating 123, Trainer M Maker
Won all 3 starts at 2 yrs, culminating in narrow defeat of Union Rags in Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Better than ever when landing G3 Gotham at Aqueduct in March comfortably by 3 lengths from My Adonis, giving weight all round. Weakened when beaten 5 lengths by Algorithms at Gulfstream in January. Front-runner prior to last time, when tracked until going on 2f out. May next take in 9f Wood Memorial (a race his sire Tapit won, though dam was a sprinter) at Aqueduct on April 7.

CREATIVE CAUSE Timeform Rating 116, Trainer M Harrington
Winner of 3 of 6 starts, notably G1 Norfolk at Santa Anita at 2 yrs. Limitations seemingly exposed behind Hansen and Union Rags in Breeders' Cup and when only third at Santa Anita in February. Son of Giant's Causeway and better prospects than some of staying beyond 8.5f.

LIAISON Timeform Rating 116, Trainer B Baffert
Won 3 out of 4 as 2-y-o, notably G1 Futurity at Hollywood Park by neck from Rousing Sermon. Favourite, clipped heels and unseated at Santa Anita in February. Son of Indian Charlie and stamina for beyond 8.5f has to be taken on trust.

SECRET CIRCLE Timeform Rating 115+, Trainer B Baffert
Fast juvenile, unbeaten in 3 starts, notably Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint by length from Shumoos. Stretched out to 8f this year, beaten half length by Out of Bounds at Santa Anita on first occasion and holding Scatman by same margin in G3 Southwest at Oaklawn on second, in February. Some encouragement from breeding that he could stay further (sire gained biggest win at 9.5f).

GEMOLOGIST Timeform Rating 114p, Trainer T Pletcher
Unbeaten in 3 starts at 2 yrs, notably G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over 8.5f at Churchill Downs, accounting for Ever So Lucky by nearly 2 lengths. Son of Tiznow, and seems a likely stayer at 10f in same colours as 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. Appearances in 2012 so far restricted to track workouts.

DULLAHAN Timeform Rating 114, Trainer D Romans
Only win from 6 appearances at 2 yrs was in G1 Futurity at Keeneland by three-quarters of a length from Majestic City. Fourth to Hansen in Breeders' Cup on final outing. Half-brother to a Kentucky Derby winner in Mine That Bird and should be suited by further than 8.5f.

EL PADRINO Timeform Rating 114, Trainer T Pletcher
Won 1 from 3 as a juvenile and both starts this year, notably G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds last time by nose from Mark Valeski. Son of Kentucky Derby fourth Pulpit and shapes as if will stay beyond 9f himself. Stable has other strong contenders.

I'LL HAVE ANOTHER Timeform Rating 114, Trainer D O'Neill
Won maiden and second to Creative Cause in G2 at Del Mar from 3 runs at 2 yrs. Surprise winner of G2 R B Lewis at Santa Anita in February, by two-and-three-quarter lengths from Empire Way. Sire (Flower Alley) won 10f Travers but yet to try beyond 8.5f himself.

ALPHA Timeform Rating 113, Trainer K McLaughlin
Won 1 out of 3 at 2 yrs and both this term, most recently G3 Withers at Aqueduct in February by three-and-a-quarter lengths from Speightscity. Behind Union Rags the two times they met, though presumably wasn't himself in Breeders' Cup. By Bernardini, out of 11.5f winner from the family of Swain, and seems near certain to stay the 10f Derby distance, having so far tried no further than 8.5f. Owned by Godolphin.

SCATMAN Timeform Rating 113, Trainer M Lauer
Rapid progress to win third and fourth starts before succumbing narrowly to Secret Circle in G3 Southwest at Oaklawn, going from front. Son of Scat Daddy (biggest wins at 9f) and has prospects of staying beyond 8f. Possible for 8.5f Rebel at Oaklawn on March 17.

OUT OF BOUNDS Timeform Rating 112, Trainer E Harty
Won once from 2 starts in maidens at 2 yrs. Much improved when winning G3 Sham at Santa Anita in January by half length from Secret Circle, late run to overhaul fading rival. Looked lively outsider for Kentucky Derby but reported in early-March to have suffered a fractured cannon bone.

Kentucky Derby Diary:
Saturday March 10: G2 Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay 8.5f; G2 San Felipe Stakes, Santa Anita 8.5f;
Sunday March 11: G3 Palm Beach Stakes, Gulfstream 9f;
Saturday March 17: G2 Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn 8.5f;
Saturday March 24: G3 Spiral Stakes, Turfway Park 9f;
Sunday March 25: G3 Sunland Derby 9f;
Saturday March 31: G1 Florida Derby, Gulfstream 9f.

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