Kentucky Derby Betting: Who makes the gate?

USA / Mike Joyce / 24 April 2010 / 1

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The Kentucky Derby 2010 takes place on May 1

"Aikenite is the bet at [4.0] or higher. Don’t hold his Blue Grass bounce against him. Once upon a time this colt was one of the more highly regarded Derby prospects in Pletcher’s barn and only one bad race knocked him off the Derby trail."

With just seven days to go until the big one at Louisville, Mike Joyce continues his Kentucky Derby countdown with a close look at the horses who might yet make it into the field of 20.

With just one week of racing to go until the Kentucky Derby the field has taken shape. The major prep races are in the books, many of the contenders have already made their way to Louisville and the focus of the Derby world is on their early morning works and gallops. A look at the top-25 three year-olds in terms of graded stakes earning would appear to include the entire field for the 2010 Run for the Roses:

1. Lookin At Lucky - Bob Baffert - $1,480,000
2. Noble's Promise - Kenneth McPeek - $738,000
3. Rule - Todd Pletcher - $645,000
4. Sidney's Candy - John Sadler - $630,000
5. Eskendereya - Todd Pletcher - $600,000
6. Line of David - John Sadler - $600,000
7. Mission Impazible - Todd Pletcher - $485,934
8. Ice Box - Nicholas Zito - $457,500
9. Stately Victor - Michael Maker - $451,112
10. Endorsement - Shannon Ritter - $400,000
11. Conveyance - Bob Baffert - $386,000
12. American Lion - Eoin Harty - $378,000
13. Dublin - D. Lukas - $373,208
14. Super Saver - Todd Pletcher - $363,832
15. Discreetly Mine - Todd Pletcher - $340,000
16. Dean's Kitten - Michael Maker - $326,475
17. Interactif - Todd Pletcher - $307,950
18. Awesome Act - Jeremy Noseda - $285,000
19. Paddy O'Prado - Dale Romans - $250,950
20. Homeboykris - Richard Dutrow, Jr. - $250,500
21. Jackson Bend - Nicholas Zito - $230,000
22. Backtalk - Thomas Amoss - $225,916
23. Make Music for Me - Alexis Barba - $218,750
24. Exhi - Todd Pletcher - $180,358
25. Setsuko - Richard Mandella - $180,000

Even though only 20 get in the gate, there is a remote possibility that Setsuko, the horse currently sitting at number 25 could get in. Noble's Promise came out of his disappointing fifth place finish in the Arkansas Derby with some cuts on his front legs and a slight lung infection. Trainer Kenny McPeek put his colts chances at 50% after the race and has since only upgraded those chances to 60%.

Wertheimer and Frere, the owners of Interactif, number 17 in terms of graded stakes earnings, have stated that unless he shows them some magic in the morning in his next several works they'll likely decline to go to the Derby as well. It may have more to do with the fact that Interactif's owners also own Setsuko who they feel is more talented and coming into the Derby with a top performance on tap.

Interactif's trainer Todd Pletcher put the same condition on the speedy Discreetly Mine who is 15th in earnings. Discreetly Mine needs to work his way into the Derby in the eyes of his trainer, despite the fact that he has the earnings. At any rate, that would bump Setsuko up to 22 and only needing two more defections to make the gate. Factor in that the owners of Setsuko and Interactif also own Lexington Stakes winner and number 24 on the list Exhi and that brings it down to one. With just five days until entries are drawn there is hope yet for Setsuko.

Of course, those hopes could be dashed this weekend as a relic from Derby trails past has suddenly found new life with graded status this year. The Derby Trial, an artifact from yesteryear when American thoroughbreds would run the biggest race of their lives off of seven days rest, has $200,000 graded stakes dollars up for grabs. The winner's share would be enough for one horse to jump into the top-20: Pleasant Prince. Owner Ken Ramsey has already gone on record that if Pleasant Prince wins and comes out of the race in good order, they're wheeling him back in the Derby. The same goes for the connections of likely favorite Eightyfiveinafifty, although with purse earnings they would still be at 21 on the list with $240,000.

I'm betting that Setsuko won't have to worry about this race. Aikenite is the bet at [4.0] or higher. Don't hold his Blue Grass bounce against him. Once upon a time this colt was one of the more highly regarded Derby prospects in Pletcher's barn and only one bad race knocked him off the Derby trail.

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janejumbo | 24 April 2010

If Interactif goes into the gate and runs, he will WIN!