Timeform 1-2-3 Tips / Simon Baker / 18 March 2011 /

It's the final day of the Cheltenham Festival, and we've got two bets there as well as one for Wolverhampton in the evening...

There are three previous winners in the field for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and it's probably fair to say that each one of Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander are on the downslopes of their respective careers, for all each one is still a force to be reckoned with at the top level. The time looks right for a changing of the guard among the staying chasers, and Long Run is the obvious candidate to assert his supremacy in the division. Unlike his rivals in the Gold Cup, Long Run has it all ahead of him, which is very exciting given the top-class level of form he produced when winning the King George at Kempton. Admittedly, Long Run's jumping hasn't been the most assured in two previous visits to Cheltenham, but his fluency in that department at Kempton should allay those fears to an extent. Simply put, he has the best recent form and is obviously on a steep upward curve, so at around [5.8] he's worth backing to signal a shift in power in the staying-chase division.

Horses going for repeat wins in the Gold Cup may well be out of luck, but there's another previous Festival winner out on Friday in the shape of Oh Crick, who is bidding to add to his win in the 2009 Grand Annual in this year's renewal. Oh Crick's 2009 win came off a mark of 130 and he followed up in the Red Rum at that year's Grand National meeting off 139, the upshot of which was that he was forced out of handicaps for his 2009/10 campaign. Oh Crick ran some pretty good races against the top two-mile chasers that season (third in the VC Chase at Ascot, fifth in the Champion Chase) without quite coming up to scratch, and this term he has shaped as if working his way back with handicaps on the agenda. Most recently he ran over two miles at Sandown and stayed on well late to finish third to Cornas, in the style of one whose mark (145) is not beyond him. He comes out top-rated on the Timeform racecard on this year's form, and there is some scope for him to do even better judged on his Grade-1 efforts from last season, so there are plenty of reasons to think he'll be thereabouts in the Grand Annual, the demands of which we know suit him ideally.

Flying Applause hasn't had a whole lot of racing in recent seasons, but he showed he's still something to offer when taking advantage of a career-low mark over six-furlongs at Wolverhampton earlier this month, and he looks interesting back there in the 18:50. Flying Applause has proved notably versatile as regards trip through his career, seeming effective from a stiff five furlongs to a mile and a quarter, but his very best form has tended to come towards the upper end of his stamina spectrum. With that in mind, the step back up to an extended mile this time is a definite positive, and he remains one to be interested in, potentially very well handicapped on some older pieces of form. An effort when mid-field at Southwell last time is easy enough to overlook given that he has never seemed fully comfortable on fibresand, and at around the [6.0] mark he's worth supporting

Recommendations

Back Long Run @ [5.8] Cheltenham 15:20
Back Oh Crick @ [12.0] Cheltenham 17:15
Back Flying Applause @ [6.0] Wolverhampton 18:50

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