Daily Betting Advice / Keith Melrose / 02 February 2011 /

Newcastle natives may be feeling a bit down in the dumps following the, ahem, 'inflation-busting' sale of Andy Carroll to Liverpool for £35m, but hopefully yours truly can provide a winning Placepot perm to perk them up.

13:20 - Make no bones about it, this is a pretty dire contest to kick off. The more experienced types are unreliable or temperamental almost to a horse, so we're taking a risk and going with a trio of less-exposed sorts. Mrs Eff and Pickworth are handicap debutants, but both were considerately handled in novices and are bred to be suited by this longer trip, while Pickworth in particular is well treated on bumper form. Our third selection is Bubbly Breeze, who was also given a fairly easy time of it on his debut for current connections in November and has plenty of scope to do better at this sort of trip, a brother to useful stayer Idle Talk after all.

13:50 - A fairly similar story to the first, but with fewer unexposed runners we're forced to take two who, although fairly reliable, are also pretty exposed. Both Mighty Magnus and Native Coll ran in the same race here a fortnight ago, the former finishing runner-up to Dark Gentleman (who also runs in this race, incidentally) and the latter falling at the eighth, his inclusion necessitated by the fact that he's arguably the best treated out of all of these.

14:20 - Storm Brig was well above average in bumpers and made an impressive winning debut over hurdles at this course in November, while the subsequent performance of runner-up Flinty Bay amongst others has bolstered the form. Alistair Whillans' charge faces a couple of interesting rivals in Shadows Lengthen and Music of The Moor, so he's no shoo-in for the win, but it would be a big surprise if he failed to make the three.

14:50 - This probably wouldn't be a race to play heavily in for win purposes, there being some sort of case to be made for all five runners. Fortunately this is the Placepot, so we can bank on Allanard, who improved markedly on his first try over fences last time and has fewer questions marks over him than the rest.

15:20 - It would be folly not to include Seren Rouge, who represents a strong formline in the shape of a similar event at Carlise in the autumn. His subsequent absence raises some concern, however, so we'll take hurdling debutant Fourjacks as insurance. Obviously that play comes with its own risks, but Fourjacks was borderline useful in bumpers and should prove all the better for the step up in trip.

15:50 - Its Teescomponents had a fruitful campaign over fences in 2009/10, including a brace of wins over course and distance, and there was enough promise contained in her reappearance over hurdles to suggest she's ready to do herself justice here. Star Player is also hard to ignore, the feeling being that a 5 lb rise for winning here last time is potentially inadequate to prevent him going in again, even if he is without Denis O'Regan, under whom Star Player has recorded three of his four wins.

Selections:

13:20 - 2, 3, 5
13:50 - 2, 4
14:20 - 1
14:50 - 5
15:20 - 5, 12
15:50 - 2, 3

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