Daily Betting Advice / Harry Bowles / 11 February 2011 /

The cards at both Kempton and Musselburgh make for tricky placepots today, but that means big returns (potentially). And there was never any chance of me looking through either all-weather meeting, so off to London it is.

13:30 - A tricky opener. Marodima is liable to be popular after his clear-cut success at Fontwell at the weekend, but he's certainly not one to rely on repeating the trick. Park Lane took a marked step forward when getting off the mark for the late Julia Tooth at Warwick back in November, but he was well ridden that day and looks to have more on his plate up 7 lb in the weights. Robain shouldn't be taken too lightly given that he looked firmly on the up when winning on his reappearance; all can't have been right next time and the subsequent three-month break could well have a revivifying effect. Even so, the attraction of According and Zafranagar is stronger. Okay, According has been a damp squib over hurdles to date, favourite for the Triumph Hurdle before his British debut this time last year after all, but he's been let into handicaps on an initial mark of 105 and will surely prove capable of better. Zafranagar, on the other hand, has the form in the book, a winner at Cheltenham and over this course and distance last season. He's been in good nick on the Flat of late (saddle slipped last time) and is on a realistic mark.

14:05 - American Trilogy (fell on chasing debut) and Ballinteni are both lacking in scope and don't make the appeal of Patsy Finnegan and Zazamix in the maiden chase which makes for the second leg. The former bumped into very smart prospect Mr Gardner on his return from the best part of two years on the sidelines, and so long as this doesn't come too soon, he can be expected to build on the effort. Zazamix was some way removed from American Trilogy when it came to hurdling form, but he's more the sort to cut it over the larger obstacles, with the step back up in trip sure to play to his strengths.

14:35 - Oscar Papa finished runner-up to the monster that is Court In Motion on his hurdling debut, but he's come up badly short on both starts since and has his well-being to prove. As such, it comes down to form versus potential with Sweet Irony and Rebel Rebellion. The latter was all the rage on his first start for Paul Nicholls at Ascot in November but endured a breathing problem and duly foundered. There's plainly a lot more to come from him, especially with a view to chasing further down the road, all size and substance, but for the purposes of today Sweet Irony looks much more solid. There's been little wrong with either of his efforts over hurdles to date, allowing for the fact he was turned over at odds-on at Wetherby last time, and a replication should be more than enough to see him home in the first three.

15:10 - The market will presumably dictate what chance The Old Buccaneer has, and he may well take off trying a handicap for the first time, but there's certainly not been enough from him to date to warrant including him in a placepot perm. The same is true of Pere Blanc, even though he looks notably well treated judged on bumper form and hasn't had the gun put to his head in three qualifying runs over hurdles. No, it's established form we're after and Nobby Kivambo fits that bill, sure to be up there from the outset and more likely than not to give his running. Elsewhere, it could prove worthwhile siding with Peveril Pandora in addition, this longer trip long since having looked to suit.

15:45 - A four-runner graduation chase featuring the listless Punchestowns, the lifeless Crack Away Jack, the winless Pasco and the hopeless Bugsy's Boy. Punchestowns is drinking in the last chance saloon when it comes to his Cheltenham aspirations, but it's good to see him back at this sort of trip and the hope is that he'll be able to get into more of a rhythm around this track. Crack Away Jack didn't show anything to offer short-term encouragement on his return at Ascot and it seems more likely that Pasco will be the one to pick up the pieces if Punchestowns fails once more. Whilst clearly not 'winless', Pasco is firmly in the 'difficult to place' category, a high-end handicapper not good enough to mix it at Graded level.

16:20 - The fact there are just seven runners in the finale clouds issues somewhat, but Soixante still appeals strongly and, as we could do with husbanding lines at this stage, is worth risking as a banker. First and foremost, his credentials are clear. He shaped well on last month's reappearance, is reunited with McCoy (both previous wins came under AP) and down to the mark he won from over course and distance last season. Second and secondmost, there are holes in the opposition. Plein Pouvoir did what he'd long since threatened to do when running away with a race at Chepstow last week, but his well-established history as a weak finisher is impossible to forget and more evidence is required before he can be considered a reformed character. Ravethebrave has taken little time to show himself better over fences, but he fell at the first at Cheltenham last time and doesn't stand out at the weights. Alderburn won a veterans event on his return, but such races tend not to make for competitive handicaps, and he's likely to prove vulnerable coming up against younger legs. Soixante it is, then, and even if I can't remember the last time I banked on a Henrietta Knight-trained horse (it was probably Edredon Bleu) I'm confident she's going to do us a big favour this afternoon.

Selections

13:30 - 7, 8
14:05 - 3, 4
14:35 - 9
15:10 - 5, 16
15:45 - 1, 2
16:20 - 5

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