US Racing / Simon Rowlands / 03 June 2010 /

Saturday is a big day for racing in the USA, with the final leg of the US Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, taking place at Belmont Park in New York. The race is the 11th on the card, due off at 6:32 p.m. local time, and will be broadcast live in Britain on ATR (23:32 GMT). Simon Rowlands peruses the field.

Finding a horse to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown proved too much this year, let alone finding one to scoop the lot for the first time since Affirmed achieved the feat in 1978. This has something to do with the variety of tests on offer but even more to do with the fact that the three punishing races take place over a period of just five weeks.

The difficulty in backing up a second in the Kentucky Derby on May 1 just a fortnight later in the Preakness Stakes persuaded connections of Ice Box to give the latter race a miss and head straight for Saturday's instead. It looks a sensible move. Few horses in the US excel at a mile-and-a-half - the Belmont distance and one of the longest in use - but Ice Box gives every indication of being one.

He finished strongly when winning the nine-furlong Florida Derby in March, and he finished even more strongly, despite having been badly impeded, to run Super Saver to two-and-a-half lengths over a furlong further in Kentucky. A smaller field and a more galloping track could help him even more.

What may not help Ice Box on Saturday is a false pace. The Kentucky Derby was run at a searching gallop - too much so for the early leaders - and Ice Box was able to come from last-but-one to first-but-one on the back of it. In contrast, there are no confirmed front-runners in the Belmont, and there is a marked absence of obvious pace, as shown by the early-position figures (EPFs) below.

First Dude is the only contender who has been in the lead early in any of his recent races, and it could be considered significant that that resulted in a lifetime-best second to Lookin At Lucky in the Preakness. With an extra one-and-a-half furlongs to travel, First Dude is likely to be ridden a shade more conservatively, but he could still get an easy lead this time.

One horse who has pushed himself to near the front of consideration for the Belmont despite missing the first two legs of the Triple Crown is Ice Box's stable-companion Fly Down, who beat Drosselmeyer by six lengths in the Grade 2 Dwyer Stakes on this course last time. He also accounted for First Dude narrowly on two earlier occasions.

In contrast to Epsom, where several who line up are bred to be suited by the Derby distance, there are no obvious improvers on pedigree for the increased test of stamina. Interactif, a half-brother to a smart French middle-distance performer and by a sire who placed at a mile-and-a-quarter, could cope better than most, though he has already been beaten by Stately Victor and First Dude.

In pure form terms, Ice Box has plenty to recommend him. His Timeform rating would see him in the first three in all of the last 10 Belmonts, in the first two in six of them and as the winner on three occasions. It has to be said that this looks a weaker renewal than usual, and the Nick Zito-trained colt promises to be suited by the test facing him. As the Americans might say: "You do the math!"

Timeform ratings (and Early Position Figures/run style)

Ice Box 123 (13/behind)
Fly Down 121 (21/behind)
First Dude 120 (76/prominent)
Stately Victor 118 (27/behind)
Make Music for Me 116 (37/mid-to-rear)
Game On Dude 114 (72/prominent)
Interactif 113 (67/prominent)
Drosselmeyer 111 (51/mid-field)
Stay Put 108 (23/behind)
Dave In Dixie 107 (8/behind)
Uptowncharlybrown 107 (26/behind)
Spangled Star 102 (39/mid-to-rear)

* Early Position Figure is based on position at early points of call in recent races and is on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 being a habitual front-runner and 0 being a horse that customarily races well in rear.

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