Newbury Betting: Paul Nicholls on his Saturday runners

It's a massive day of jumps racing at Newbury where plenty of horse will get their last spin before Cheltenham. Paul sends a good number so read his opinion on Al Ferof, What A Friend, Aiteen Thirtythree and more here

13:20
Al Ferof: We are undecided about his Cheltenham target, but we let him take his chance dropped back to 2m on a galloping track that he likes - it may not be ideal, but he won his bumper on this card last year before finishing second at the Festival. Had a nasty-looking fall at Cheltenham in December, and we rode him more patiently when third to Backspin next time. Had a nice runaround when winning at odds of 1-7 over 2m4f at Taunton last time but hopefully this run will tell us more about where we go at Cheltenham. Looks to have Kid Cassidy as his main rival, but on official ratings we have 2lb in hand of him at these weights.

13:55
Valentine Vic: Winning pointer who will make his proper mark when sent over fences. But he showed fair form over hurdles when beating Triggerman by 6 lengths at Taunton last season, before a breathing problem surfaced when disappointing next time. Hopefully, that problem has now been rectified. We won this race with the well-handicapped Alfie Sherrin last year and I would say that Valentine Vic is on a workable, perhaps even winnable, mark of 125 before he goes chasing.

14:25
We have won five of the last nine runnings of the Aon with five different horses (Shotgun Willy, Valley Henry, Kauto Star, Denman and Tricky Trickster) and we rely on What A Friend and Noland today.
What A Friend: Finished a fine second to Denman in the Hennessy last season, and went on to record Grade 1 successes at Leopardstown and Aintree. Had a breathing operation in the summer and I thought he had improved, so he undoubtedly disappointed me when only fifth in the Betfair Chase. But he didn't like the tacky ground there and I can forgive any horse one poor run. We have targeted this race ever since Haydock and he goes well fresh, so he needs a big run if we are to entertain thoughts of the Gold Cup, though he is also in the Racing Post Chase and the Grand National too. That said, he is officially rated 6lb inferior to the King George runner-up Riverside Theatre, who clearly likes it here, and we have to give him 4lb, so we are up against it at the weights. But one thing in our favour is that we come here fresh. Harry rides, which gives us an extra jockey option if he gets to the Gold Cup.
Noland: To be honest, he has to show something here or retirement beckons. But like we saw with Neptune Collonges, horses can bounce back from very poor runs, so fingers crossed. Despite his excellent second to Pepe Simo in a Jumpers' Bumper in December, I thought he would need the run at Cheltenham, his first jumps starts since winning the 2008 John Durkan. But he clearly ran disappointingly, never jumping or travelling. But AP said give him a try over 3m, so here we are, and the smaller field and longer trip may give more time to get into a rhythm. Let's hope he shows some of the sparkle saw him win three Grade 1 races.

15:00
Tchico Polos: He is rated 157, so is certainly a hard horse to place now, and I probably shouldn't have run him in the Victor Chandler last time as the race came too soon. But he has had a longer break this time and certainly has claims here on his best form now that Woolcombe doesn't run and this has become a very open race; indeed, he is weighted to reverse Sandown form with Cornas, and that run was probably a career-best and marked him down as a progressive horse. But he doesn't owe anybody anything after winning the race we targeted him at, the Haldon Gold Cup, earlier this season. But he can go well here if back to his best.

16:05
Aiteen Thirtythree: He was rated only 120 over hurdles and after one just run over fences, he is already rated 150, so he has made massive improvement for the switch. In fact, there is a funny story about his progression. When Ruby got him after he finished second at Newbury last year, he called him "useless". Myself and Mr Barber remember it well - but I don't think Ruby was sticking to that assessment after Aiteen was a wide-margin winner on his chase debut here in November! Denman won this race before winning the Sun Alliance, so let's hope that's an omen. In fact, I have already backed Aiteen at 33-1 for next year's Hennessy, as he looks the ideal type for the race, too. The track clearly suits him, though I wouldn't want it too soft for him. Is a cracking prospect, but I fully respect the opposition here, notably Tarablaze.

16:40
Balding Banker: Finished second on his debut at Ascot and then went one better in style over course and distance in November. Has progressed well physically for his subsequent break, but has to step up again in this company as the Newbury race probably wasn't that strong. But is a nice prospect and this will probably be his last run of the season before going over hurdles next year. But let's see what happens here first.


View Paul's three strongest fancies here


Fancy owning a share in Indian Daudaie? Click here to find out more!

Paul Nicholls / 12 Feb 2011