Cheltenham Trials Betting: Paul Nicholls on his Saturday runners at Prestbury Park

Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 29 January 2011 / 6

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Neptune Collonges faces a key race in his career

"This race will tell us whether we go for a better race next time or go down the handicap route with Neptune Collonges, perhaps even to the Grand National."

It's the last day of Cheltenham action before the Festival and Paul sends a good number to Prestbury Park - but which of his horses does he fancy?

12:55
Indian Daudaie: Joined us after finishing second in a Grade 1 at Auteuil in November - though he was beaten 15 lengths by Tanais Du Chenet - so we haven't had him that long. But he has done nothing but please us since he has been here. He is not flashy, but has improved physically since being at Ditcheat and really pleased me in his schooling and a bit of work he did on Thursday. But he will improve for this outing today and, in fact, I think he will keep on improving throughout the Spring. As he also won a valuable hurdle at Autueil in October, he has to carry a 7lb penalty here in a competitive race. But he has decent form himself in France.

14:00
Chapoturgeon: Had the possibility of a nice prize taken away from us when Haydock forgot to put their frost covers down last Friday night! Won the Jewson by nine lengths at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival and has generally struggled ever since. He has been really slow to come to hand at home - he has been a bit of a nightmare actually - and he found things happening a bit too quick at Exeter last time, but he ran a fair race all the same. He remains handicapped up to the hilt - he was raised to 153 after that Cheltenham win and has only been dropped 3lb since - but would definitely have a chance on his best form and the step up in trip will suit. He has also come on a lot for the Exeter run.
Noland: Very talented horse, a Supreme winner and won the John Durkan on his last start over fences in December 2008 and was off with a leg until reappearing in a Jumpers' Bumper on the all weather at Kempton last month, where he thrilled me in finishing second to Pepe Simo. He is in good nick but I suspect he will need a run over fences to put him really straight. So, although he is fairly handicapped off 157, I will be highly delighted if he finishes in the first four.

14:30
This race has cut up to just five runners, and among the late defections were ante-post favourite Time For Rupert and Taranis, who had an unsatisfactory trachea wash on Friday. But we still have two runners.

Neptune Collonges: Multiple Grade 1 winning top class chaser from 2007-9 but his comeback from a lengthy absence hasn't gone to plan, being brought down in the Hennessy and then missing the break and never getting competitive at Cheltenham last time. Still rated 162, if he is back to anywhere near his best, then he clearly has a chance. But this race will tell us whether we go for a better race next time or go down the handicap route with him, perhaps even to the Grand National.
The Tother One: Has run two sound races this season, finishing second to Nacarat in the Charlie Hall and then fourth in the Hennessy. He didn't jump well and was outpaced at Newbury, so that was a fair effort in the circumstances. I was thinking of running him in the Great Yorkshire but he would have carried 11st 12lb there and he just can't do that, as he isn't big enough. He runs in cheekpieces here, and he has had them all week to get used to them. The idea of that is try and sharpen his jumping up and if it works he could definitely be in the shake-up.

15:05
Rock On Ruby: This promises to be a proper Cheltenham trial with the likes of Backspin, Bobs Worth and Champion Court in opposition, and this will tell us we where we stand with Rock On Ruby as regards the Festival. Proved himself a very smart bumper performer with a listed win at Cheltenham in November, and clearly made a great start to his hurdling career when beating the well-regarded Megastar and Kid Cassidy at Newbury. Of course, that race took place in the fog and some may question the form - indeed, I see Timeform say he may even have got a soft lead as he was in front whenever they came into view! - but Harry said he jumped really well there and to win by 6 lengths was clearly impressive. But this is another big test for him.

15:35
Gwanako: A 150+-rated chaser his prime and things didn't go his way on his first two starts over fences this season when falling. So we switched him back to hurdles at Cheltenham on New Year's Day and he outran his price in finishing a good fourth to Ashkazar. But that was off a mark of only 140, so he obviously has it all to do in this company.
Organisateur: Has astounded me with his progress this season; he started off the campaign finishing second off 128 at Cheltenham, was a two length second in the Lanzarote at Kempton last time and now has been raised to 159. That makes him the highest rated hurdler in the race, so if you believe that mark he clearly has got to have a leading chance, getting weight. Now handicaps are out of the equation this was an obvious race to go for, but he is trying 3m for the first time and I hope that the race doesn't come too soon for him.

Read Paul's opinion on his other weekend runners for Doncaster and tomorrow by clicking here.

To get Paul's three best chances click here

Win a 5% share in the Paul Nicholls' trained Indian Daudaie, owned by the Timeform Betfair Racing Club. Any new members who sign up this weekend are entered into the draw for the 5% share. There is a £50 credit back for new members too! For more information on joining click here.

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David Howel | 29 January 2011

Great to see old favourite Neptune win...surely he's earn't his place in the Gold Cup at least, no National!
paul | 29 January 2011

did not see that coming after the horse was beaten 34 lenghs in a weaker race last time out (50 days ago).nicholls said to mcoy make every post a winning one-why did he not say that to jockey R Mahon last time out over same CD (horse got a good mention before it made its seasonal debut in his betfair coloum)-this is what makes me angry about trainers,they run them to benefit themselves and connections-we the punter can look at the form book as much as possible,but Only Paul Nicholls and connections know when it is TRYING to win !
Anonymous | 29 January 2011

Paul. ive been in the raceing game a long time & you are right.But I do admire paul n. I can tell you wye neptune won today. At newbury pauls horse beat punchestowns a head. & neptune
is a lot better than him. thay know it and he was baced to do it.
paul | 30 January 2011

i agree,but its his first run that i am annoyed with,the form book says it had a great chance,nicholls gave it a positive mention in his betfair coloum (i backed it !)and at no point was it ever put in the race !(trainer and connections knew this before the race(had a nice run round said nicholls).yet yesterday nicholls said after the race,this was his gold cup,and to be positive (make running).i did not back it yesterday (how could you after his last run !)-us punters need mystic meg to know what these trainers and connections are up to-throw the form book out of the window,it only works when trainers are honest and horses are trying !
julian seymour | 30 January 2011

Neptune will surely take his place in the gold cup. It wont be good enough to win but may scrape a place. With the lack of out of form horses. Nigel must be rubbing his hands. And i hear the commander is spot on again. Tidal bay seems a difficult ride and gets into the bottom of his fences. if this wasent the case with him i think he would win the gold cup. Hes a very good horse.
& just to say the yard is very concerned now about (grand cruz) World hurdle to turn over big bucks.
paul | 31 January 2011

i agree imperial commander (tidal bay if he's on a going day !),grand crus,mourad,maybe solwhit or mikhael d'haguenet can serve it up to kauto,denman and big bucks.maybe some of these trainers and connections will find out what its like to lose your money on the so called 'good thing',like us punters do when horses dont run on their merits (not trying to win,have other targets,that only trainer and connections know about!).