Paul Nicholls: "I have no concerns about the overall health of my horses"

Latest News / Paul Nicholls / 21 January 2011 / 7

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The yard walks through Ditcheat

"As far as I am aware, sick horses do not tend to improve and among those not to have performed anywhere near their mark all have individual, not collective, reasons why they ran poorly."

A poor strike rate so far this month has set tongues wagging in racing circles - but there are reasons behind each horse's defeat, argues Paul

It does irk me somewhat when people look at my strike rate of 12 per cent this in January so far, and just assume that my yard is under a cloud. Indeed, I even read somewhere that the well-being of my string should be "seriously questioned" if we don't have a winner this weekend.

I must be missing something.

Yes, that strike rate is considerably lower than in previous Januarys, where I have consistently won with more than one in five of my runners, despite it traditionally being a quiet spell for us because of the flu jabs we give to the horses during the month.

But I like to think I am more open than most when it comes to revealing information about the stable - be it injuries, breathing operations, and maybe even earplugs in the future! - to Betfair customers, the BHA, the racing channels and the written press.

And I can tell you here and now that, as I write this, I have no concerns about the overall health of my horses.

Yes, it is disappointing when horses run below par and don't win, and there have perhaps been a few too many this month. And a 12 per cent strike rate is far less than I normally would expect, I readily admit that.

But lazy generalisations and comments tend to build up a momentum - like a good bit of gossip about the girl next door, no-one wants to spoil it with the sober reality that she has never even been kissed - if not checked.

Checked in both senses of the word.

So, on Monday morning, I asked Timeform to go through all of my horses to have run in January and see if they performed above or below their Timeform master rating (horses that either failed to finish or were making their hurdling/chase debuts and had no comparable form were ignored - and , for the record, they included impressive winners such Minella Stars and The Minack, so I am not hiding behind statistics here).

Fourteen improved on their Timeform master ratings, and 17 did not. Indeed, nine of the 17 ran at least a stone below form, with the likes of King's Legacy (50lb) Free World (33lb), Kauto Star (31lb) and My Will (30lb) all running races some way detached from their peak.

As far as I am aware, sick horses do not tend to improve and among those not to have performed anywhere near their mark all have individual, not collective, reasons why they ran poorly. Obviously, Kauto Star is the most high profile, as he had a slight bleed and infection after his King George run.

And there were various and obvious reasons why such Toubab (heavy ground), The Nightingale (finished distressed/fibrillating heart), My Will (old age and now retired), King's Legacy (failed to stay), Free World (never going after an early blunder, though Tchico Polos ran a 7lb career best in the same race), and Sam Winner (I have bruises all over my body as I have been beating myself up ever since running him at Chepstow) all ran way below their best.

And I can reveal here that Escort'men probably needs a sinus operation after running badly at Kempton.

I could go on, and add that Mr Hudson actually had a bad foot infection after improving to finish third at Exeter, and Pepe Simo some 22lb in defeat at Kempton, according to Timeform. And Organisateur and The Reformer improved 6lb and 3lb respectively on the same card when placed. The latter ran well and now goes for the EBF final.

And since Timeform did those stats, we have obviously had the likes of Cedre Bleu and Al Ferof come out and win well this week.

So the point I am trying to make is that people should take the time to look beyond the recent statistics. My seasonal strike rate currently stands at 25 per cent and I'll be bloody delighted if it is still 25 per cent come April.

Who knows, we may have another disappointing weekend.

Horses are not machines, and they will disappoint for specific, and sometimes unknown, reasons.

The moment I suspect there is any general and widespread problem at all in my yard, you and the public will be the first to know.

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Read my thoughts on the rubbish being written about Kauto by clicking here.

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jan evans | 21 January 2011

Paul we really appreciate your honesty -as I said before horses are like people but cant talk to you and that is the most difficult thing -you do your best to give the public ever opportunity to make decisons etc based on honest information - long may it continue
paul | 21 January 2011

You need to ask Nicky Henderson about his 'machine' horses,how can his string run so well and you the champion trainer's horses run so in and out-what does he do differentthan everybody else ?
Peter | 22 January 2011

Paul,thanks for being so open and imformative. As you said, horses are not machines. As for Henderson,he has been an underachiever for many years and never really been a top trainer of chasers.
anthony simester | 23 January 2011

Paul, You and your staff are the best thing that ever happened to racing. I respect you for everything you do and if someone stuck a microphone in my mouth immediately after one of my horses had just run and I hadn't spoken to the jockey or the owners I would stick that microphone where the sun don't shine.
All yo people griping, get a life and be grateful for what Paul does tell you, he shouldn't have to go to the lengths he does, like the above write up, for example. If I were you Paul, I would ignore the people who have too much to say and once again, thank you.
Danj | 24 January 2011

Agree, Ignore them Paul, You cant please everyone!

Also lets not ignore that Ruby is missing.

Take M.United for example as Pauls horses, Top team, Top horses, Top staff, Champions for a reason.

Take away an inform Rooney and the the team is still impressive however Rooney steps it up an extra gear as i beleive ruby does too.

Don't let the pressure get to you, It's the same as Kauto, You're a champion, people will Just critisize you because you didnt manage the same success as you did 12 months ago, but kauto finishing 3rd in such a big races, with a bleed/infection is impressive, You owe us nothing. I still beleive the Gold cup is coming back to Ditchheat.

If at all possible, Please may we have an update on your thoughts of "Plenty Pocket"? It looks like a nice horse aside from the pulling hard and didnt seem to settle.

Also an update on what denman is upto would be nice :>
paul | 24 January 2011

paul nicholls seems a decent enough,but dont lose sight that he has a fantastic job,wealthy high profile owners,between him ,ruby walsh,harry findley,paul barber and alex ferguson,he must be cleaning up on plots and gambling to do with horse racing.he has the best information being top trainer,and people like the above poster complain that he should not put up with a few people trying to get interviews which benefit the general public and punters like me !
anthony simester | 24 January 2011

Paul, It isn't a few people it is herds of people putting microphones in his face immediately after a race and he does do it and it is nice but everyone should wait a while and let him speak to the jockey and the owners first. As for being grateful, surely everyone is grateful, my arguement is he shouldn't be picked on just because some of his horses are running below par. He does his best and tries with everyone of his runners and gives his honest opinions of nearly everyone of them. The people who are moaning could eventually niggle him enough to say, enough IS enough and tell no one anything.
Rant Over