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Sedgefield 3.00: The XY Factor

XY Factor RSS / / 30 September 2008 / 4

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We've seen the auditions - but which two horses have made the cut for this afternoon's 3.00 at Sedgefield. Check out our new service now !

About The XY Factor

Welcome to a new daily tipping column on betting.betfair.com - The XY Factor. Each day we carefully select a race (usually a handicap) which is then analysed by our computer which predicts the % chance of each horse in the race based on a wide range of variables and our unique algorithm.

The results are plotted on the graph - and the 'selection line' is plotted - anything above the line we are interested in backing - anything below misses the cut.

We aren't afraid to have more than one bet in the race where the prices dictate and the service is fully accountable with running totals of weekly and monthly returns to the recommended stakes.

Whilst the approximate price is given at the time of publishing - the final returns will be based on the Betfair Starting Price (BSP) for consistency.

Date:
Tuesday 30 September

Selected Race:
Sedgefield 3.00

Suggested Bets (current win odds in brackets):
3 point win MUREE QUEEN [5.0]
3 point win PERLY SPENCER [5.0]

Staking Plan Records:
Yesterday: -3.50
This Week: -3.50
This Month: -3.50

Today's Verdict:
The 3.00 at Sedgefield is a very poor handicap with only a couple in with a reasonable chance of victory. Despite heading the market there is value in backing the front two in the market coupled as despite being at the top of the weights they should be able to make their class tell. The Pipe stable do well with their Sedgefield raids and MUREE QUEEN has strong chances. She was held up on her debut for this stable when finishing fourth last time and it would come as no surprise to see a change of tactics on her today. PERLY SPENCER represents the George Moore stable that won this race in 2006 and this one reverts to hurdles after a course second over fences last time out.

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  1. The Truth | 30 September 2008

    1 point win / 1 point place ROCK 'N' ROLLER 8.0
    0.5 point win / 1 point place THE COMPOSER 16.0
    2 point win TOBAGO BAY 6.2

    Yesterdays bets totalled 5.5 points.

    All bets lost.

    Show your readers some respect. How you can claim to be only 3 1/2 points down is beyond me.

    Respect is everything and this website proves it has no qualms in putting the readers away.

  2. The XY Factor | 30 September 2008

    The Truth

    The bet yesterday was 3.5 points down as Rock N Roller was a non runner. Hope it answers the query.

    XYF

  3. Dave | 01 October 2008

    Hi XY factor,
    i applaude the truth for coming forward about this servuce and as you have only justposted your selections you must have had computer problems as racing has started.I do have some specific questions which i feel merit a response so please indu;ge me.

    1-What kind of Algorithm do you use i.e.Linear Search ,Quantom,Dijkstra's algorithm, Kruskal's algorithm.I think we have a right to know what kind you use whilst protecting your method

    2-What specific vaaiables do you use i.e form,draw,weight,track speed,going,surface.Please be specific in this area.

    3-You claimed yesterday that Muree Queen could be ridden from the front.This horse has never been ridden from the front in its whole career why did you believe that the tacticts would be changes today


    4-It is my belief that you should use bookmaker sp like the rest of the industry.

    5It is my belief that you should only usec level stakers to stop you doubling up when you get panicked.
    6-It is interesting today that you claim your original top rated is a non-runnerThis suggests that you have an excuse already built in.
    7-I believe that in the unlikely event that you suggest a big price winner you will start betting in 1/4 and 1/2 points so you can continue forever.
    8-A detailed response is expected mr xy so us poor punters can learn from your wisdom and thinking.
    9 Finally wahat systemd you use to check the efficiency of the algorithm i.e balance or Capitalization.Surely you have a system inplace som please share it with us
    Dave

  4. The XY Factor | 01 October 2008

    Thanks for your e-mail.

    You have raised several points, which I will try and reply to.

    1. The algorithm has no name - it is just a formula which I have worked on for several years.

    2. Most of the readily available elements, form which includes course, distance, going, weight, SP, prize money, finishing position and beaten lengths.

    3. I made a mistake. Simply I thought a change of tactics might have been used to bring about an improvement - and it would come as no surprise to see the Pipe stable try the front running approach.

    4. I disagree - the service is provided on the Betfair site and the BSP regularly out-performs so I clearly want to use the BSP.

    5. Not sure of the point.

    6. Not at all.

    7. Not at all.

    8. Noted

    9. The system is being refined continually.

    XY