Tipping / Mark Powell-Bevan / 11 August 2011 /

The Juddmonte International is the opening day highlight of the Ebor Meeting at York on Wednesday, but Timeform's Mark Powell-Bevan reckons that it's well worth taking on the ante-post favourite, Await The Dawn...

Let's face facts, the Juddmonte International at York on Wednesday isn't going be the race it could have been, with Frankel instead going for the QEII at Ascot and So You Think being aimed at the Irish Champion.

However, top-class renewal it mightn't be, but interesting one it is. Aidan O'Brien has presumably targeted So You Think at the Irish Champion in the belief that he has another horse capable of winning the International in the shape of Await The Dawn.

And the Ballydoyle maestro could easily be right. Await The Dawn has made it to the course only six times in three seasons of racing, but five of those outings have returned wins and there's no reason to think that any injury problems he may have had before are going to hold him back now, as he has been most impressive on both starts this year, bolting up in both the Betfair Huxley Stakes at Chester and the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He's been given plenty of time between each of his runs, likely by design, and apparently has a switch to dirt (bred to go on the surface being by Giant's Causeway and out of a Dixieland Band mare) for the Breeders' Cup Classic on the agenda later in the season. Whether he takes to that different test or not, it's easy to see why he's favourite for the International on Wednesday, currently trading at [2.06].

There are few chinks in Await The Dawn's armour, but if there is one question mark over him it's that he has yet to win at Group 1 level. The same can't be said of the pair who are likely to be his chief market rivals, both of whom represent trainer Henry Cecil and owner Khalid Abdulla (who also owns Juddmonte Farms, who sponsor the race but have yet to win it), namely Twice Over and Midday.

Twice Over is a dual Champion Stakes winner and also has an Eclipse to his name, and whilst he didn't look himself on his first two starts back in Britain this year, having won in Dubai in the spring, he was seemingly back to form when landing the Group 2 York Stakes last time.

That was a muddling event, however, run in a time almost a second slower than the preceding 0-90 fillies' handicap, and as a result it's best to view the form, and the apparent resurgence of Twice Over, with a degree of scepticism. That said, Twice Over has been here before, runner-up to Rip Van Winkle in last year's International, and it's impossible to rule him out.

Midday herself is a multiple Group 1 winner, and completed a hat-trick of wins in the Nassau at Goodwood on her most recent outing, when beating Snow Fairy (could yet reoppose but more likely to go for the Yorkshire Oaks) by two lengths. All of Midday's wins have come against her own sex, but she arguably should have claimed the scalp of one of the Ballydoyle star colts already this season, travelling all over St Nicholas Abbey for most of the Coronation Cup only to throw the race away by idling.

Whilst Await The Dawn still has the potential to achieve a higher rating, having had so little racing so far, Midday is the one with the better form, and, what's more, she's produced it time and time again.

If like Frankel and So You Think, Misty For Me is another to opt for an alternative engagement, then there is a distinct lack of depth in behind, but one who should be right in the mix is the French-trained Planteur.

Ellie Lellouche's Prix d'Harcourt and Prix Ganay (beat Sarafina and Cape Blanco in course-record time) winner wasn't at his best when fourth in the Prince of Wales' Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, but there were excuses on tactical grounds in that he tried to go with So You Think and the pick of his form leaves him with only a couple of pounds to find with the market principals.

The only others who could have a case made for them are the Godolphin pair of Rio de La Plata and Casamento, but Rio de La Plata, a Group 1 winner in Italy, seems a few pounds shy of what it takes to win at the top level in this country while Casamento, who won three of four starts for Michael Halford last year including the Group 1 RP Trophy at Doncaster, has yet to fire for his new stable, finishing down the field in the Guineas at Newmarket and in the French Derby. It would take a leap of faith to back Casamento, but he does at least have more potential than most.

To sum up, Await The Dawn is hard to knock on any grounds other than he's just too short to be getting involved, but that means there is value elsewhere and it comes in the form of Midday, who is actually rated 1 lb superior at the weights and has shown what she can do on the Knavesmire many times over, including when bolting up in last year's Yorkshire Oaks.

Recommendation

Back Midday @ [4.2] in the Juddmonte International

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: