Ante-post / Timeform / 30 August 2011 / 1

The news that Andre Fabre's Derby winner Pour Moi has been forced into retirement through injury this week means the market for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in October has been thrown wide open. Timeform look at the main contenders for Europe's premier middle-distance contest...

That Pour Moi will miss the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is obviously a big blow to Andre Fabre, but the twenty-two-times French Champion trainer has an able deputy in Meandre, who sprung a surprise when winning the Grand Prix de Paris from the likes of Seville, French Derby winner Reliable Man and Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach.

Following his Grand Prix de Paris win, Meandre was nominated by his trainer for the Prix Niel, a race that Fabre has used as a stepping stone for six of his seven Arc winners, including his most recent one, Rail Link in 2006, and an impressive display there will see Meandre shorten significantly in the betting from the [11.0] currently on offer.

The Niel is renowned as the key Arc trial, with the winner going on to land the Arc no fewer than eight times from the last seventeen runnings, and also likely to line up is French Derby winner Reliable Man [19.0], whom Meandre beat so comprehensively in the GP de Paris. Reliable Man's trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre, who has had three placed runners in the last five years, including 2008 winner Zarkava, blamed the firmer-than-advertised ground for Reliable Man's defeat at Longchamp, and there's still a good chance that there's a bigger performance in him at a mile and half judging by his pedigree, a son of 2003 Arc winner Dalakhani with plenty of stamina on his dam's side.

Jean-Claude Rouget's Baraan could manage only third behind Reliable Man in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly, but he caught the eye that day with the way he finished after forfeiting loads of ground at the start and could be an interesting outsider, remembering that he had beaten none other than Derby winner Pour Moi in the Prix la Force the time before. Baraan missed the Grand Prix de Paris after a minor setback and seems to have been overlooked in the betting at [26.0]. He'll hopefully be supplemented for the Niel and it could be worth taking a price before that trial given that a step up to a mile and a half is almost certain to suit, being another by Dalakhani.

The French also have Galikova [14.0], a half-sister to Freddie Head's stable star Goldikova, who has progressed well this year and won a Group 2 at Deauville (Golden Lilac [75.0], who had beaten Galikova in the French Oaks, only third) last time, but their main hope is Sarafina, who currently heads the market at [6.4].

Better than the result after meeting trouble when third in the Arc last year, Sarafina has looked every bit as good if not better this season, winning the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on her most recent outing. Sarafina prepped in the Prix Vermeille last year but could reportedly be switched to the Prix Foy this time, and while she is respected as market leader, there are others who have better form.

Among those with higher ratings are last year's Arc winner Workforce and Aidan O'Brien's Australian import So You Think.

The pair fought out the finish of the Eclipse at Sandown in July, with the O'Brien runner finishing half a length in front, but that was over a mile and a quarter and Workforce [7.2] strikes as a better horse at a mile and a half. Workforce wasn't at his brilliant best in the King George for the second year in a row, but a poor run at Ascot is easy to forgive (also reportedly suffered a cut leg when struck into, which is what apparently caused him to veer left under pressure) and it's difficult to forget the way he scythed through the field to win at Longchamp last October, defeating Japanese raider Nakayama Festa [42.0] by a head. Workforce's stablemate Sea Moon [21.0], who also carries the colours of Khalid Abdulla, is seemingly now on course for the St Leger at Doncaster, while Workforce will presumably head straight to Paris, as he did last year, giving him time to recover from his injury, and he goes there with every chance of defending his crown and becoming the first horse since Alleged in the 70s to record back-to-back victories.

So You Think [7.6] is a strong favourite for the Irish Champion Stakes on Saturday, a race that has been won by Dylan Thomas and Sea The Stars en route to Arc success in recent years, but given his background, imported to Ballydoyle from Australia, it would be no surprise to see him head back there to bid for an historic third Cox Plate.

O'Brien, of course, has a number of able deputies, with the likes of Coronation Cup winner St Nicholas Abbey [26.0], just one who could replace So You Think if he goes back Down Under. Although St Nicholas Abbey could finish only third in the King George last time, he could still have a bigger performance in him bearing in mind the way he beat Midday at Epsom.

The other main contender yet to be mentioned is John Gosden's King George winner Nathaniel [8.2]. Nathaniel had a lot to live up to his year having finished runner-up to Frankel on his debut last season and has stepped up to the mark in no uncertain terms, going down by a head to Treasure Beach in the Chester Vase before securing an Ascot double, romping home in the King Edward VII Stakes and defeating Workforce and SNA in the King George.

Nathaniel will still have questions asked of him, with the form of that latter Ascot win easy to pick holes in given the fatal injury suffered by Rewilding and Workforce's disappointment, not to mention that he was well placed in a steadily-run and tactical affair, but his King Edward form looks solid with the runner-up Fiorente having finished second in the Gordon at Goodwood and he's worth his place towards the head of the betting.

As ever, the upcoming trials will tell us more, but ante-post betting is about trying to secure a good position prior to the main event. With that in mind, and the fact that 3-y-os have won 14 of the last 17 Arcs, it's worth having a few quid on Baraan at a big price in the hope that he'll be supplemented (on September 8) for the Niel and run a big race, and therefore contract in price for the Arc. Whilst the convalescing Workforce is unlikely to be seen in the interim, it's worth backing with him, too, as he has arguably the best form and proved last year that he doesn't need a trial to get him spot on for the first Sunday in October.

Timeform ratings for the Arc (weight adjusted)
143 So You Think
142 Workforce
141 Nakayama Festa
138 Sarafina
137p Sea Moon
136 Nathaniel
135 St Nicholas Abbey
132 Meandre
131 Golden Lilac
130 Galikova
129 Reliable Man
124+ Baraan

Recommendations
Back Baraan @ [23.0] and Workforce @ [7.2] for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday October 2

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1. Pat | 30 August 2011

   Baraan does not hold an entry in the Niel, he would need to run again to be shorter in the Arc and does not currently hold any entries

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