French Racing / Graham Cunningham / 04 October 2008 / 1

They say it will rain in Paris this Sunday, but it will take more than a few showers to dampen the spirits of thousands of British and Irish visitors to Longchamp. Graham Cunningham packs his kagoule and crystal ball for a card with five Group 1 contests which climaxes when Zarkava tops the bill in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

1.15 Prix de l'Abbaye

There are any number of potential stories here and one or two could be of the hard luck variety. Take Marchand D'Or, who lines up with impeccable form credentials but will need all the breaks if Bonilla adopts waiting tactics from stall 20 on his return to five furlongs.

Sentimentalists will be cheering rags-to-riches Hungarian raider Overdose as he bids to stretch his winning streak. He's very speedy and deserves a shot at the big time, but dominating this calibre of opponent over a shorter trip than he is used to will be tough and I suspect the market has over-reacted to his chance.

Now to the proven five furlong stars. Fleeting Spirit was blindingly impressive when trouncing Borderlescott in Haydock's Temple Stakes and that win looks even more striking in the light of the way the runner-up landed the Nunthorpe at Newmarket.

National Colour and Equiano finished second and fourth in the Nunthorpe. It's hard to see Equiano reversing the form - as the way he hung was worrying - but National Colour showed tremendous pace to go down by just half a length and that speed will make her a strong contender of clear interest for the back to lay brigade here.

Of the remainder, Moorhouse Lad beat Wi Dud and Enticing in game style at Newbury, but none of that trio look up to winning a championship contest and my take on the race is that Fleeting Sprit and National Colour are the pair for win purposes with Overdose as a possible win and place lay option now that he steps in against the real cracks for the first time.

1.50 Prix Marcel Boussac

This race often proves the launchpad for a stellar career - witness Finsceal Beo and Zarkava in the last two years - but it's hard to go overboard about this renewal given the presence of so many potential improvers.

Copperbeech is unbeaten and trained by a maestro, while Finsceal Beo's stablemate Maoineach was a decisive winner of a Group 3 on her debut and is plainly open to considerable progress. Elusive Wave is three from three with a level of form which gives her clear place claims, while Irish raider Again has thrived on soft ground over seven furlongs while giving the impression that a mile will be no problem.

This has all the signs of a no bet race for me, but the last one worth a mention is Pill. She bolted up over this course and distance and represents Zarkava's handler, but as with Again she faces no easy task having been drawn on the wide outside of such a big field.

2.25 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere

The odds will be little to write home about, but Mastercraftsman looks bound to be very hard to beat. Granted, he had to dig deep to subdue Shaweel in the National Stakes at the Curragh, but the runner-up has thrived of late and the very holding ground was almost certainly less than ideal.

The way Mastercraftsman quickened to land the Phoenix Stakes on his previous start marked him out as a very good juvenile indeed and the bottom line is that this lot need to improve markedly to match him.

Among them, Milanais looks one of the stronger French contenders after splitting subsequent good winners Soul City and Jukebox Jury here last month. Naaqoos returns to Group 1 company after appearing to relish making the running over this course and distance.

He's likely to have company up front from regular pacesetter Sea Of Marmara here, though, while the step up in class is of much more concern than the step up in trip for the unbeaten Desert Phantom.

3.00 Prix de L'Opera

Can Lush Lashes notch yet another Group 1 success? Only a fool would dismiss such a tough and reliable filly, but Jim Bolger's runner has had a few demanding workouts at the top level this year and I wonder whether there might be one to beat her on this occasion.

Granted, she ought to confirm recent Leopardstown form with Lady Gloria and Youresothrilling, while Moonstone showed real guts and stamina in the Irish Oaks but has more to prove than Lush Lashes now she returns to this shorter trip.

Don't be surprised if the hardy Lady Deauville runs a blinder at a big price, but Katiyra and Treat Gently appeal as two to have on your side here. Katiyra has earned this return to high class company after a couple of commanding wins on softish ground in Ireland, while Treat Gently has been progressing steadily and has no Zarkava to contend with this time.

3.40 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

First things first. I almost backed Zarkava at [8.0] in the summer and didn't. That hesitance could prove costly, but the sole question that matters now is whether to back or lay her at [3.0] or under. Swerving the favourite altogether is also an option, but if pushed it would have to be the lay button. Yes, she's unbeaten after swaggering clear of good fillies, but this is a different ball game and even if she avoids a slow start Soumillon will have to plot a very careful course to sweep her wide from stall one.

The weather will be crucial in determining how Duke Of Marmalade and Soldier Of Fortune travel in the market. How they travel in the race is what really matters, of course, and the draw is also a factor for the Duke given that stall 14 could see him trapped wide early.

In short, both horses are good enough to go very close indeed. That draw has put me off Duke Of Marmalade slightly, but he is just too good a horse to be going off at [7.0] or bigger if conditions allow him to take his chance.

Now to the double figure odds brigade. Vision D'Etat is six from six and won a key trial without being punished, but is he really good enough? Personally, I doubt it. Getaway wasn't good enough last year and isn't likely to be quite good enough this year either, while last year's runner-up Youmzain needs to shrug off a subdued King George run but ties in very closely with Soldier Of Fortune and is much too big a price to even think about laying now.

Papal Bull remains an enigma but is clearly overpriced if judged on his fine second in the King George, while the Japanese challenger Meisho Samson tends to finish his races strongly and rates as another live longshot if the rain stays away.

But enough of the possible and onto the best betting angles. In truth, there are several other races this weekend which attract me more and, until the weather picture clears, it's hard to be dogmatic. That said, Duke of Marmalade and his stablemate Soldier of Fortune make most appeal in the win market, with Vision D'Etat a likely place lay if he can be taken on at [3.6] or thereabouts.

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1. Bernard | 06 October 2008

   ooopps Graham .... presumably since Zarkava traded so low you ended up hitting the lay button. And you tipped another 4/9 fav loser (Mastercraftsman).... your article failed to mentioned any of the winners on the day. ... as for Papal Bull looking overpriced? ummmm touch of the Richies there :-)

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