Events / Graham Cunningham / 27 November 2009 /

His fans claim he will have just too much class, while figures fans feel he needs to produce a stellar performance to defy top weight. The Denman debate dominates discussions on Hennessy Gold Cup day and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is looking to a new kid on the block to upset the favourite on a superb Newbury card.

Only the very best will do if Denman is to land his second Hennessy

There is nothing too complicated about the Denman debate regarding this Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup.

In short, if you think he is still capable of the sort of irresistible performance he produced to bolt up in this race and the Gold Cup two seasons ago then you will be mustard keen to back him at a little over [5.0].

But if you think that an honest second in this year's Gold Cup represents the best Denman has to offer nowadays then you will be willing to take him on in a race which invariably attracts a clutch of well treated horses open to further progress.

I doubt you will be surprised to hear I am in the latter camp.

Granted, Denman has done me some great turns - including in the Hennessy and the Gold Cup - and it's interesting to note that Ruby Walsh feels he is still well worth his official handicap mark of 174.

And maybe he is, but the crucial point to make about Denman in this year's Hennessy is that running to a mark of 174 simply won't be good enough.

Indeed, if I have read the runes correctly then Denman will have to run right up to his 2008 Gold Cup winning mark of 182 to land this.

Put simply, the terms of this race mean Denman has to concede 18lb and upwards to horses like Killyglen, Barbers Shop and What A Friend - and that is asking plenty.

It will be fascinating to see whether the Nicholls team have enough confidence to revert to the trailblazing style which helped propel Denman to the top before problems with an irregular heartbeat intervened last season.

To my mind they will be leaving Denman's greatest weapon at home if they don't let him roll along, but all in all I'm happy to be against "the Tank" on these terms.

Part owner Harry Findlay feels he will know his fate very early depending on how Denman sets about his business.

If he powers clear passing halfway showing that old zest again then I could be in trouble. But if Denman can't shake loose on the final circuit then my decision to lay him (several times) at [5.0] could be the right one.


Progressive Killyglen the each way call to take the Cognac north

If opposing Denman is a fairly straightforward decision for ratings followers, then finding the right one to take him on is a much trickier process.

Paul Nicholls reports that his team have backed What A Friend, who is plainly still unexposed after just four runs fences, while Barbers Shop has to be high on any short list given that he travelled powerfully for a long way in the Gold Cup and has a 20lb pull with Denman this time.

I'm far less keen on Cappa Bleu, who hardly looked a Hennessy winner waiting to happen on his Aintree reappearance, but Killyglen and State Of Play make much more appeal as win and place contenders.

State Of Play won this race three years ago and has been given a good chance by the handicapper again, but Killyglen is my main choice for several reasons.

First, he's unexposed after just five chases; second, he put up a fine performance in a Grade 2 at Aintree last April to slam last week's Haydock winner Shining Gale by nine lengths; third, he looked as good as ever when tiring late in his attempt to concede 16lb to Knockara Beau over an inadequate two-and-a-half miles at Carlisle on his reappearance; and fifth, that form has been franked several times since.

In summary, Killyglen is lightly raced stayer who jumps well and has the potential to produce a career best performance this weekend.

If Denman can give him 20lb and beat him then my hat is off to him. But Killyglen is trading at around twice the price on Betfair. And to my mind that makes him the clear value option.

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