Betfair Chase at Haydock / Joe Dyer / 16 November 2011 /

Eight of last 15 Gold Cup winners have lost on their seasonal reappearance.

Long Run is the [1.9] favourite to win the Betfair Chase - but the record of Gold Cup winners on their reappearance may make odds-on punters think twice before getting stuck in.

That's because of the last 15 winners, only seven were successful first time up the following season. And further analysis of the statistics makes for even grimmer reading for would-be Long Run backers.

Excluding the two who pulled up (Master Oats and Cool Dawn) first time up on their reappearance, the Gold Cup victors ran to an average Timeform rating 9.5lb below their Cheltenham winning form.

Granted, a few of those winners won with plenty to spare, such as Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase last year.

But the fact is that five ran 19lb or more below their Cheltenham form (as well as two being pulled up) and only two of the 15 actually improved upon their Gold Cup-winning form on their reappearance: 1999 hero See More Business in winning the Charlie Hall, and 2007 winner Kauto Star in defeat in the Old Roan when failing by only 1½ lengths to give Monet's Garden 14lb.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin commented: "History advises caution for those that think Long Run is an odds-on good thing on Saturday.

"No trainer is going to have the Gold Cup winner trained to the minute on its reappearance. And in an above average renewal of the Betfair Chase, that must make even a horse of the calibre of Long Run vulnerable against some fully tuned-up and race-fit rivals - even though he goes into the race 14lb clear on Timeform ratings."

How Timeform rated the Gold Cup winners on their return
2010/11 - Imperial Commander WON (21lb below Cheltenham)
2009/10 - Kauto Star WON (6lb below Cheltenham)
2008/9 - Denman RUNNER-UP (23lb below Cheltenham)
2007/8 - Kauto Star RUNNER-UP (13lb above Cheltenham)
2006/7 - War Of Attrition WON (6lb below Cheltenham)
2005/6 - Kicking King RUNNER-UP (10lb below Cheltenham)
2004/5 - Best Mate WON (6lb below Cheltenham)
2003/4 - Best Mate RUNNER-UP (19lb below Cheltenham)
2002/3 - Best Mate WON (2lb below Cheltenham)
2001/2 - Foot and Mouth. No Gold Cup winner.
2000/1 - Looks Like Trouble WON (20lb below Cheltenham)
1999/00 - See More Business WON (1lb above Cheltenham)
1998/9 - Cool Dawn PULLED UP
1997/8 - Mr Mulligan RUNNER-UP (5lb below Cheltenham)
1996/7 - Imperial Call FOURTH (20lb below Cheltenham)
1995/6 - Master Oats PULLED UP

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: