The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 September 2011 / 2

GB & Ireland look to make it six in-a-row and Webb has designs on back-to-back wins in the States. Read Steve's thoughts on this week's golf action here...

There's a break from stroke play golf in Europe this week with the seventh staging of the Vivendi Seve Trophy, an event I'm not going to pretend I'm looking forward to with relish. I'm not a huge fan of match play tournaments and this particular affair is one of the least exciting.

The brainchild of the late Seve Ballesteros, it's a biennial event staged in non-Ryder Cup years between GB & Ireland and Continental Europe and its primary purpose is to give any future Ryder Cup stars some valuable match play experience.

Led by the great man himself, Continental Europe won the inaugural event in 2000 by 13 ½ - 12 ½, but they've not had a look in since and GB & Ireland are looking for their sixth straight win. At odds against, they're definitely the value in the Winner market.

There are also markets for the Correct Score, Top Points Scorer, Top GB & Ireland, Top Continental European, Top Debutant and Day 1 Leader. It may pay to follow the in-form pair of Simon Dyson and Thomas Bjorn in their relevant markets but the best bet could be in the Correct Score market, if you believe lightening can strike four times! Incredibly, GB & Ireland have won the last three contests by a score of 16 ½ - 11 ½.

There's so much live coverage on Sky that DVT could be an issue for serious enthusiasts! My plan is to dip in and out throughout the week and almost view it as half a week off. I will post any bets on the In-Play Blog and I'm bound to get tempted by a few of the individual matches, once the pairings are announced. If I place any bets on the day one matches, I'll post them in the comments box but, for now, all I've had is a modest play on GB & Ireland.

Selection:
GB & Ireland @ [2.2]

The Vivendi Seve Trophy may well get the bulk of the week's TV coverage but the big event is the BMW Championship - the third, and penultimate event of the FedEx Cup playoff series, staged once again, and possibly for the last time, at Cog Hill in Illinois.

Originally called the Western Open and first staged way back in 1899, this is one of the oldest tournaments in the world. Having had various different venues, Cog Hill became the host venue in 1991. There are four courses and course number four, Dubsdread, is the one used for the tournament. The only year it wasn't used was 2008, when Rees Jones orchestrated a $5 million redesign that hasn't gone down particularly well with the players, though local resident and favourite this week, Luke Donald, claims there's much improvement this time around.

With the aim of securing a future US Open, length was added and all 18 greens were changed but the owners could do with some better feedback from the players if they've any chance of realising their aspirations. Cog Hill is losing this event after this year too, so it's a massive week for them.

Tiger Woods has been the King of Cog Hill and he's won here five times, including once since the renovations. Dustin Johnson won last year, from another big hitter in Paul Casey, but it's far from a bombers' paradise. Past winners (albeit before the changes) include accurate types like Jerry Kelly, Stephen Ames, Robert Allenby and Jim Furyk.

I really don't know whether the changes mean the shorter hitters are now disadvantaged enormously and I've been ultra cautious from the off, backing just two.

Given the changes it's tough to work out exactly what's required but par 4 Performance looks like it could be key. Each of the last six winners has ranked either first or second in scoring on the par 4s. Take a look at the Par 4 Performance stats this year and go from there would be my advice. Wagers on any of the Top-10 could result in a profit but I'm just going for the man currently ranked third - the red-hot Webb Simpson.

Over the last few months we've witnessed several players winning multiple titles and only a fortnight ago Thomas Bjorn won back-to-back in Europe. It's never easy to achieve the feat but given Webb's fine form, and the fact that he seems to have all the right attributes for the venue, he looked a really solid pick at [23.0] to follow up his success at the Deutsche Bank Championship two weeks ago.

My only other pick is outsider Jerry Kelly, who Paul Krishnamurty makes a case for in this week's Find Me A 100 Winner.

Selections:
Webb Simpson @ [23.0]
Jerry Kelly @ [160.0]

I'll kick off the In Play Blog on either Thursday evening or Friday morning.

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1. Dan G | 14 September 2011

   Steve, what are your thoughts on Lefty this week?

2. Steven Rawlings | 14 September 2011

   Hi Dan,

   My thoughts are that I could well regret not following you in!

   I very much considered backing him and he looks close to winning again but I’m trying to be clever and wait for next week, where I fancy him more.

   The only two things that stopped me this week were his distance putting at the Deutsche Bank and his overall course form at Cog Hill – though it does appear the changes suit him and you can’t argue about the price.

   My hope for this week is an under-the radar ish performance and a decent price for next week. I’m then hoping for a return to the short putter at East Lake (I’ve a theory that those that try the long but then ditch it often play really well back with the shorty) and a relaxed position in the FedEx Cup standings, i.e. not in the top-5.

   What will probably happen is that he birdies his first three holes tomorrow and I dive it at [10.0], cursing as I do!

   
   

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